In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to say very little, but Powell [...]
Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face of a lot of increasingly [...]
Nothing will ever compare to China’s New Year Golden Week holiday for challenging economic statistics. Since the celebrations are not affixed to a specific point on the calendar, floating around back and forth some years between January and February, it makes making comparisons of those months particularly tricky. For the China’s Big 3 statistics, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed [...]
On February 7, the 3-month LIBOR rate (US$) fell sharply. Traders were, as various media outlets reported, stunned. All sorts of excuses were issued, the goal of them cumulatively to deny your lying eyes. Falling LIBOR couldn’t have been the market, especially eurodollar futures, anticipating a rate cut because these same people had been saying (and betting) for nearly two [...]
Europe is a total mess, no one can (honestly) argue otherwise. But that’s just Germany and France, right? PMI’s in those countries were a disaster. Those reported for the US weren’t really all that bad. Weaker, sure, hardly the obvious sinking especially when compared to German manufacturers. IHS Markit’s flash US Manufacturing Index for March 2019 was 52.5. This was [...]
These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets work. They can’t even get federal funds right after two technical adjustments to IOER (the joke). But as esoteric as all that may [...]
If “rate hikes” and QT are the world’s big problem in 2019, then why is the FOMC announcing the end of “rate hikes” and QT failing to have a positive effect? The answer will surprise most people. Central banks, dominated by central bankers who are Economists, meaning statisticians, are always behind. They do not lead. Monetary policy, which has no [...]
Quick review: stocks hit a bit of a rough patch right during the height of inflation hysteria. At the end of January 2018, just as the US unemployment rate had finally achieved the very center of attention, global markets were rocked by instability. Unexpectedly, of course. Over the next several weeks, share prices sagged and people blamed it on a [...]
Everyone went dovish after what happened in December. Convention assumes that central bankers take their cues from the NYSE. I don’t think that’s what shook everyone up, though. Curves, ladies and gentlemen. The bond market revolted and the stock market showed serious signs of catching its contagion. Since the mainstream had been expecting a booming economy, because that is what [...]
Nothing the Fed did today, or has done up to today, has changed the curves. Eurodollar futures and UST’s, they are both still inverted. The former sharply inverted. The only thing that has changed since early January is the narrative – and not in a charitable way. It is treated as a positive when it is a pretty visible signal [...]
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