For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave [...]
Is Mexico about to go down the same road as China, Brazil, and so many others have the past few years? The more interesting question may be what took so long, if they are. Mexico’s central bank has been forced into action again, after interjecting itself last month supplying dollars directly to Mexican banks, as well as the same in [...]
Rather than bury this chart in my earlier discussion of liquidity preferences, I felt it deserved its own piece to highlight what it shows. By all traditional and orthodox Economics, this just should not be possible. Yet, there it is and it’s not the only example of violation. For very different markets as robust as each one is, there should [...]
If more people desire a certain thing, in a free market the price of that certain thing will go up regardless of any possible inherent value. Indeed, that is how market consensus is supposed to work, the backbone of efficient markets. I don’t believe that markets are or ever can be perfectly efficient, especially in the current age where assumptions [...]
It is largely irrelevant, but still the political theater is fascinating. As is now standard operating procedure, whatever comes out of the Trump administration immediately is conferred as the standard for awful. This is not my own determination, mind you, but that of the mainstream, whatever that is these days. And so it is with the first set of budget [...]
There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward assessment is required so as to frame how we view what comes next. As [...]
Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is [...]
Janet Yellen was apparently “hawkish” again in her latest speech, though the reasons why she may have been continue to elude the media and many markets. In many ways, she doesn’t even know, a fact that she expressed several months ago to likewise very little appreciation. The FOMC may or may not raise rates in the next meeting or the [...]
In the middle of 1919, the United States was beset by a great many imbalances. Having just conducted a wartime economy, almost everything before then had been absorbed by the World War I effort. With fiscal restraint subsumed by national emergency, inflation was the central condition. Given that the Federal Reserve was by then merely a few years old, no [...]
It’s pretty safe to write that no matter what happens in the global monetary system it won’t be considered properly. Orthodox doctrine which dominates the media (why there are still credentialed economists quoted in these articles) essentially prevents it from happening. From terms like “capital outflows” spring up analysis predicated on there actually having been both capital and outflows of [...]
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