Europe

Swap Ween

By |2020-06-19T19:06:51-04:00June 19th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s another one of those myths that gets repeated over and over because it has never been realistically challenged. Not in any public way. The Fed says its dollar swap lines, central bank liquidity swaps as they call them today, worked beautifully. They may not use that particular word to describe the results, but you are distinctly left with that [...]

ECB Doubles Its QE; Or, The More Central Banks Do The Worse You Know It Will Be

By |2020-06-04T19:10:13-04:00June 4th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A perpetual motion machine is impossible, but what about a perpetual inflation machine? This is supposed to be the printing press and central banks are, they like to say, putting it to good and heavy use. But never the inflation by which to confirm it.So round and round we go. The printing press necessary to bring about consumer price acceleration, [...]

Miracles Aren’t Shovel-Ready

By |2020-05-13T19:39:50-04:00May 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The monetary mouse. After years of Mario Draghi claiming everything under the sun available with the help of QE and the like, Christine Lagarde came in to the job talking a much different approach. Suddenly, chastened, Europe’s central bank needed assistance. So much for “do whatever it takes.”They did it – and it didn’t take.Lagarde’s outreach was simply an act [...]

EA GDP + GFC = HOLY CR$%

By |2020-04-30T16:58:55-04:00April 30th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Following along the same top-down model, what unites central bankers and socialists is equality. Handing over significant authority to either results in everyone being equally impoverished. And, therefore, those very authorities fighting over minute scraps so as to display some sense of accomplishment.In October 2015, safely nested within the cozy confines of Brookings, being paid handsomely to opine on matters [...]

The Greenspan Bell

By |2020-04-21T15:59:52-04:00April 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?My very first day on the job, [...]

Sick Camels, Thin Straws, And The Global Virus (both of them)

By |2020-03-06T15:57:13-05:00March 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unlike the headline Establishment Survey, the rest of the economic data isn’t surging like it’s 2014 all over again. On the same day the BLS issues the next blowout payroll report, the Census Bureau suggests instead US demand, at least for goods produced overseas, continues to decline at a precipitous pace. Seasonally-adjusted, there had been something of a rebound in [...]

If Some Economists Are No Longer Buying It

By |2020-02-26T17:26:35-05:00February 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz ignited and invited controversy today when he signaled that the federal government is looking at a possible suspension to constitutional budget measures. With a nasty political fight certain to follow, even temporarily adjourning the country’s so-called debt brake would not be easy. With Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party already in a precarious position, one might wonder, [...]

Schaetze To That

By |2020-02-24T19:19:55-05:00February 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil. The non-standard [...]

Number Four Gets Back To Looking Nasty

By |2020-02-21T17:22:40-05:00February 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Shocking, perhaps, but in no way unexpected. IHS Markit didn’t just throw a wrench into all that talk about a global rebound, the organization solidly hammered a substantial nail in its coffin. According the flash estimates for February 2020, the US economy hit a skid. The manufacturing version dropped back to 50.8 from 51.9 in January. The rebound on this [...]

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