federal funds

EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

By |2018-06-22T16:09:37-04:00June 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their practice impractical evidence. It’s all [...]

That Didn’t Take Long (UPDATE)

By |2018-06-21T16:38:28-04:00June 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t know if I should make this a regular feature or not, but IOER is the one monetary policy factor that maybe is easiest enough to understand and therefore the quickest route for the public to get to they really don’t know what they are doing. Federal funds aren’t some obscure way off policy goal, it’s the very lever [...]

That Didn’t Take Long

By |2018-06-20T18:04:24-04:00June 20th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

That didn’t take long. The Fed’s IOER scheme lasted all of three trading session. That it was broken yesterday of all recent days isn’t surprising, at least when you realize the full range of things going on yesterday. First, a review: The issue this week, perhaps, is again EFF only this time the effective rate is pushing a little too [...]

Uncertainty, Or You Had One Job To Do (And It Wasn’t Dots)

By |2018-06-13T16:50:38-04:00June 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As anticipated, the FOMC voted on both proposals in front of it. There should only be the one, but even routine monetary policy no longer is. Alan Greenspan’s Fed charged ahead with seventeen consecutive moves (the last few completed under Ben Bernanke) with little discussion about uncertainty in the economy (though there was, conundrums and all) let alone in the [...]

2018 or 2008? IOER, EFF and more Absurd Denial

By |2018-06-11T13:19:23-04:00June 11th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week, it was overseas central bankers who stole the show. Many of them particularly in EM locations have had a really rough go of late, and a few in particular wanted the world to pay attention to dollars. Not any dollars, of course, as that would be far too easy. Rather, offshore “dollar” markets have found a few voices. [...]

Central In Name Only (CINO?)

By |2018-02-23T16:33:36-05:00February 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is far too much shorthand in the study of the economy and markets. We take so many things for granted, we never really stop to ask if its appropriate that we should. The desire for quick rules of thumb is understandable enough given a complex world. There is probably nothing more in it than the economy and markets. It [...]

Is It Ever Different This Time?

By |2018-02-23T13:40:04-05:00February 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As my colleague Joe Calhoun likes to point out, nothing is new, everything has happened before. We like to think that’s not the case, as the saying goes every generation thinks it has invented sex. What changes is the form, the format largely remains the same. Human beings in 2018 are the same as they were in 1918. Quite recently, [...]

A Boom Of Hysteria

By |2018-02-13T12:28:08-05:00February 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always been easy to lose perspective. In the modern social media age, maybe it has become even easier. Conventional wisdom rarely seems to get challenged anymore, particularly given the assignment of “what everybody knows.” Big Data is, for example, predicated on a very good theory, the wisdom of crowds. It hasn’t yet lived up to its expectations because as [...]

(Chicken) Hawkish

By |2018-01-31T16:11:50-05:00January 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You have to go back four years for some honesty. The FOMC in January 2014 could be more forthright simply because the committee’s members believed they wouldn’t ever have to explain themselves. They voted to taper QE at the end of 2013 with the expectation that the economy would perform as their econometric models laid out. Thus, they could say: [...]

Go to Top