There are subtle shifts underway in policy expectations and perceptions. Some of it is related to the change from Bernanke to Yellen, as there seems to be a different philosophy regarding mostly QE. Chairman Bernanke was nearly unequivocal in his belief that monetary policy both should and could return the economy to a state more closely aligned with historical experience [...]
I speculated in May last year that the introduction of the taper concept was in large part due to what Jeremy Stein articulated in February 2013, namely the idea that certain “markets” were becoming overheated in the “reach for yield.” In essence, it amounted to an attempt to “talk down” assets, chief among them the raging price appreciation once again [...]
There was considerable attention given to Janet Yellen’s appeal toward “optimal control” language in prior speeches and toward her confirmation. The idea is such that the newly committed 2% inflation target does not need to be a “rule.” Under optimal control, the FOMC may tolerate an inflation rate above that target if it allowed unemployment to decline at a quicker [...]
I suppose when your entire task derives from regression-based statistics, there is the tendency to incorporate straight lines into even your own thought patterns. Of course, that leads to self-reinforcing bias and should be canceled by some governing process. Usually that governing process takes the form of applied knowledge (as opposed to math-based knowledge) and plain common sense. In a [...]
Mortgage rates have swung back to a 2-month high, a unfortunate concurrent timing to Janet Yellen’s recent assurance that the FOMC remains in full support of the mortgage market. Taper is not tightening to her, so the 53% decline in the monthly issuance of MBS and agency securities in February against May 2013 (before the taper word was released) must [...]
It wasn’t all that long ago that bank stress tests were designed specifically to ensure 100% passing rates. The purpose of the exercise has nothing to do with bank safety or even oversight, it is a mode of pure psychology (bordering on propaganda). The first introduction back in 2009 was effectively that – to calm investor fears by stamping the [...]
Recently there has been a slight increase in interest over the money supply figures, particularly M1; nothing too major but some perceptible chatter. Going back in the weekly data, you find that the growth rate suddenly jumps in early February. For anyone searching for inflation, which includes practically the whole of the orthodoxy, this might seem like a sign of [...]
In February 2013, more than a year ago, Jeremy Stein, Federal Reserve Board Member, openly expressed concern over behavior in certain sectors of the financial markets. He categorized this as “reaching for yield”, but there was more than a whiff of caution in his exposition of leveraged loans and junk debt. “The annualized rates of PIK bond issuance and of [...]
I quoted Janet Yellen’s statement from her first press conference yesterday, but it bears repeating: These sizable and still increasing holdings will continue to put downward pressure on longer‐term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and make financial conditions more accommodative, helping to support job creation and a return of inflation to the committee's objective. We saw new home construction data [...]
There was nothing surprising in Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen’s press conference yesterday. While some “investors” may have been shocked about where policy was headed, some parts of the credit markets have been anticipating this course right along (more on that later). Whatever may be expectations for QE and “forward guidance”, the FOMC is using the unemployment rate to provide [...]
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