Real Estate

A Marathon, Not A Sprint

By |2020-03-30T09:20:12-04:00March 30th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks rose last week, a breathtaking, nearly 20% run off the recent lows before a pullback Friday trimmed the gain for the week to about 11%. That was certainly helpful but investors would be well-advised not to get too excited. This is what bear market rallies look like. They come out of nowhere, they run much further than anyone thinks [...]

Regime Change

By |2020-03-23T08:06:50-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Special Reports, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were still down on the week as corporate and municipal bonds continued to get [...]

A Week We’ll Never Forget

By |2020-03-16T07:02:39-04:00March 16th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Last week was one of the worst weeks in the history of the US stock market. Thursday’s plunge was the worst one-day loss other than the crash of 1987. Friday’s recovery was stunning as well but big rallies are typical of bear markets and that is, unfortunately, where we now find ourselves. Obviously, the selling was about the coronavirus and [...]

Is this the Beginning of a Recession?

By |2020-03-10T10:40:57-04:00March 10th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the expected outcome. Most observers seem to question only the [...]

Big Picture: Long-Term Trends In Markets

By |2019-09-26T17:13:38-04:00September 26th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The investment industry is always focused on the short-term, an attempt I think to justify fees through activity. A recent example is the breathless reporting about a short term shift toward value stocks. Value has underperformed for so long that everyone is hyper-focused on finding the inflection point so every wiggle in that direction is hailed as the turning point. [...]

Living In The Present

By |2019-01-10T17:15:44-05:00January 5th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It's that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:24-04:00August 1st, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10-year Treasury yield punching through 3% again this morning. [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:27-04:00May 15th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it [...]