inflation expectations

Federal Reserve’s Own Inflation Expectations Surveys More Agree w/Euro$ Futures Inversion Than Rate Hikes

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-02-14T19:14:27-05:00February 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC is going to hike rates maybe even aggressively. There’s not much dispute on this assumption. Why the Committee might be doing so, that’s a whole detailed debate. The Treasury yield curve is building toward inversion while the crucial (and leading) Euro$ futures curve is already substantially upside down.Both are increasingly confident market bets against the FOMC’s position(s).Jay Powell [...]

Bitcoin Like(s) TIPS

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-01-25T20:16:54-05:00January 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Oil has easily, it appears, rebounded after having moved lower in November. It bottomed out that first big day of omicron fear on December 1 (ironically, or not, the same day the eurodollar futures curve inverted). Since a low of just over $65 (WTI), crude’s front futures price is easily back in the $80s thereby threatening to make January’s US [...]

One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-17T20:28:27-05:00December 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the [...]

Taper Rejection

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-15T20:17:02-05:00December 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the FOMC, there was no alternative. The CPI’s keep going higher while the unemployment rate continues lower. Those who are Economists and practice Economics’ brand of econometrics, these would be scary times ahead. Inflationary times unless someone puts a stop to them first. Not because of consumer prices today, but because officials are worried consumers are becoming normalized to [...]

FOMC’s Taper Preview: Inflation Fairy
FOMC’s Taper Preview: Inflation Fairy

FOMC’s Taper Preview: Inflation Fairy

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-13T17:59:58-05:00December 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the CPI inching closer to 7% and everyone talking about consumer prices, the FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow can’t be anything else other than inflation. Even if there was something else on the economic horizon, say a material “growth scare”, it’s too late for policymakers since they’d already painted themselves into a narrow corner months ago.If they don’t accelerate [...]

Omicron Fears Fading, CPI Huge-r Still, Fed Hinting At Accelerated Taper, And Yet Euro$ Inversion (and other things) Is Still Here

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-10T19:51:56-05:00December 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The bond market is imploding, right? It has to be going by everything you hear. Did you know that the last two 30-year bond auctions had gone “awry”, as one mainstream news outlet put it? Another "media" shop declared them “catastrophic.”The second of those long bond sales was conducted just yesterday afternoon, right in time to run into the buzzsaw [...]

Did Last Week Deliver Some Sour Certainty?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-29T19:47:01-05:00November 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This sour/soar stuff goes back many years. The last time we went through the same hysteria (if for different reasons), everyone said the global economy was going to accelerate, take off, and sail onward forever after. The world was, they all claimed, set to soar.Globally synchronized growth. The bond market didn’t just disagree, it did so vehemently, a pessimism when [...]

Always The Next Landmine

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-12T20:35:09-05:00November 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Picking up where we left off from our review of the first series of landmines, including the big one at the end of 2008, the world has been rocked by these things in almost continuous succession. Every couple of years, “everyone” says the world is recovering from the previous “unexpected” shock only to find instead how the global system ends [...]

What Does The Rest of the Market Think About The ‘Epic’ CPI (TIPS, breakevens, even consumers themselves)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-10T19:57:58-05:00November 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We already covered the yield curve’s reaction given today’s whopping consumer price levels. How about strictly inflation expectations in the market? TIPS, breakevens and such.Unsurprisingly, shorter-term breakevens (5s) jumped 12 bps to a new high of 308 bps (boosted considerably following the auction on October 21st). Pulling up the rest of the inflation “curve”, the 10-year breakeven added a “mere” [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?
Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2021-11-01T08:01:59-04:00October 31st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]

FOMC’s Taper Preview: Inflation Fairy

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

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