Wow, what an incredible day across the entire marketplace. And by incredible I mean nothing good at all. Predictable, though. All the warning signs and warned-about fragilities playing out as expected, escalation up and down each curve or equity index. To start with, I still don’t really know where the bills are right now! That it is even a question [...]
The US$ continues on its rampage, particularly zeroed in on China for simple if misunderstood reasons (that have nothing to do with “devaluation”). What about the rest of the marketplace, the other stuff which identifies the eurodollar’s various cycles? You know about T-bills, which, yet again today, are more like what the dollar is suggesting. Other than those, what’s the [...]
Last September 28, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Nancy Pelosi of the House of Representatives to inform its Speaker that the government would run out of cash, and accounting tricks, by October 18. Unless Congress, starting in the House, did something about the so-called debt ceiling, Treasury would be forced to take even more restrictive, potentially destructive means to [...]
With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets. One reason why is that policymakers at the Fed really still believe, even after so [...]
It was the clash of all clashes, the textbook up against practice in a real world falling apart. Theory’s chance to save the day and prove itself, what should’ve been the legend’s finest hour. Time to put up, or... On the one side, there was the “money” we’re all told is easily created, and on the other what may have [...]
Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]
Dark leverage, that’s the real stuff. In a ledger-based monetary system, money creation comes from expanding leverage. Simple. Clean. Obvious. How it gets done, that’s the genius, the beauty, and the disaster. Call it money of account, or ghost money, fictional currency, whatever. It’s the secret sauce which, when you see it, you just can’t un-see it. This is the [...]
Representatives in Congress from both parties were understandably apoplectic. Amidst the world’s worst monetary chaos since the Great Collapse after October 1929, legislators had been told by everyone from central bankers to all the right Economists how laws needed to passed right away, no delay, which would give the Bush Administration authority to buy up the “toxic waste” each had [...]
It was said to be something hugely significant, truly momentous - but only until it started to misbehave all over again. This was the summer of 2013, SHIBOR Summer in China and the misunderstood, mislabeled “taper tantrum” in the US$. Consistent with the latter’s more optimistic take on the world, the 30-year swap spread turned positive for the first time [...]
Tomorrow represents the 6-month mark for the Treasury market. On August 4, 2020, nominal benchmark 10-year yields declined to their absolute closing lows. Over the half-year since, rates have generally been on the rise which should be a long enough period by which to categorize our interpretations of what it all means.Most mainstream commentary places any upward trend (of any [...]
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