Goods require money to finance both their production as well as their movements. They need oil and energy for the same reasons. If oil and money markets were drastically awful for a few months before December, and then purely chaotic during December, Mario Draghi of all people should’ve been paying attention. China put up some bad trade numbers for last [...]
We’ve seen all this before, almost exactly the same. Back in the middle of 2011, European officials remained fully confident even though things were already working backward. The ECB had in May 2010 “bailed out” markets as well as PIIGS, or so the media claimed. All that was left was time. On their side was Brent oil. Jean-Claude Trichet, Europe’s [...]
How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts. Italy has found competition in the race to violate EU fiscal guidelines. [...]
Loreley Rock near Sankt Goarshausen sits at a narrow curve on the Rhine River in Germany. The shape of the bluff produces a faint echo in the wind, supposedly the last whispers of a beautiful maiden who threw herself from it in despair once spurned by her paramour. She was transformed into a siren, legend says, a tantalizing wail which [...]
Data dependent, they claim. They aren’t. Mario Draghi at his last press conference admitted, “incoming information, [is] somewhat weaker than expected.” There is so much riding on the word “somewhat.” Because of the weasel, the head of the ECB told the assembled media policy normalization was unimpeded. He did so with a straight face. Good. Europe’s QE experiment needs to [...]
The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms and then frontrunning potential trade restrictions. Manufacturers domestically were gearing up for a whole host of non-economic reasons. If Keynes had ever been right about activity for the sake of activity, [...]
Central bankers must be using some other dictionary than the one available to all the rest of the world. Janet Yellen, for example, abused the word “transitory” for so long it became unrelatable to the concept of time; which was its original meaning. It evolved into an excuse for explaining how forecasts weren’t wrong, they just applied always to the [...]
Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent - at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion. Given what’s happened [...]
If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to concede there had been at [...]
Sometimes it pays to wait. Better to be sure than premature. In January 2014, the journal Central Banking handed out its inaugural awards. Among the recipients was Paul Volcker who was bestowed a lifetime achievement prize. The initial Governor of the Year honorific, something like a central banker MVP, went to Mario Draghi of the ECB. He graciously accepted in [...]
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