Shocking, perhaps, but in no way unexpected. IHS Markit didn’t just throw a wrench into all that talk about a global rebound, the organization solidly hammered a substantial nail in its coffin. According the flash estimates for February 2020, the US economy hit a skid. The manufacturing version dropped back to 50.8 from 51.9 in January. The rebound on this [...]
The ISM’s Manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply in January 2020, according to preliminary assessments. December’s figure was revised upward to 47.8 from 47.2, which had been a decade low, and that’s only where it began. The first estimate for the twenties exploded out of contraction, or what’s associated with the idea, to reach 50.8. It was the highest since last July, [...]
IHS Markit’s Composite US PMI rose to a 10-month high in January 2020. According to its flash estimate, the index was up to 53.1 from 52.7 in the final reading for December 2019. Driven by a rebound in the services component, the composite combines both the manufacturing and service PMI’s into a single number, Markit’s view is that the US [...]
The way the global economy shifted from globally synchronized growth to globally synchronized downturn was specific: dollar then trade then manufacturing and industry which then spread into other areas. If the economy is to avoid moving further down that same track, then something in that chain of events must actually change. Meaning just that: actual change in the way the [...]
Over the past several months, there has emerged a divergence in sentiment; or, more precisely, sentiment indicators. The ISM’s PMI’s have remained at or near their lowest levels (in years) while IHS Markit’s have moved somewhat higher. Since the narrative has shifted toward “growth scare” at the same time, you can guess which surveys have carried more weight. But Markit’s [...]
The weekend began with pure joy over PMI’s before it ended in deep disappointment early Monday…over a PMI. It started in China. That country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its November 2019 numbers for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment. According to the government’s calculations, the gauge for manufacturing ticked back above 50 last month for the first time since April. [...]
With some PMI’s in the US on somewhat of an upswing, it already raises the issue of a midpoint in their trend. Given how the US data is pretty isolated in that way, could there also be midpoint decoupling? That’s what we would have to believe if the “bottom is in” folks have it right, those like Jay Powell who [...]
It was a huge sigh of relief, seen as confirmation of the word “transitory.” Oil prices in late 2014 had crashed and while globally monetary officials tried to reassure everyone it was a good thing, a supply glut giving consumers something like a tax cut, the wipeout was still unnerving. And that uneasy feeling was reinforced by forward-looking economic data [...]
In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent. It hadn’t been a very good summer to that end, the promised second half rebound failing to materialize [...]
Note: originally published Friday, Nov 1 There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half [...]
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