Much like global “inflation”, if you set out to find global “demand” you will be hard pressed to find it. QE was supposed to be a huge boost to aggregate demand, through inflation expectations, yet the score in 2015 is hugely negative. Overseas problems are not unfortunately so remote, despite all mainstream protestations, as you can simply trace it all [...]
It all started with Japan so it makes sense to start there. As anyone who wishes might know, the Bank of Japan has pioneered the QE business to the point beyond extrapolation. They were first to do it, first to “have” to expand it, and first to go back to it over and over and over. BoJ is on at [...]
Spending and wage growth disappointed in September, particularly as incomes continue to register barely any growth. The fact that this stagnation has continued for several years allows commentary such as this: U.S. consumer spending in September recorded its smallest gain in eight months as income barely rose, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases. The Commerce [...]
In addition to indications for a gathering slowdown in export power Germany, the UK has followed a similar line of late. That would make sense since both Britain and Germany are essentially the same kind of economy separated slightly in geography and currency. They both make much of their growth from the same marginal space; financial services, exports to the [...]
Written Wednesday Oct 28 Credit Suisse has stumbled in its initial restructuring effort. Forced by Swiss regulators to deleverage more quickly, the bank has turned to several unenthusiastic steps in order to comply. The Swiss banking unit will see a partial public flotation not to “unlock value”, as is commonly described, but rather to satisfy systemic banking requirements in the [...]
Written Monday Oct 26 If China and Europe provided any boost to mainline sentiment last week, everyone looks to Japan this week for perhaps disappointment, though there isn’t any good reason why. Perhaps as a fitting description of this current situation, one that I think appears more inevitable by the day and the week, the Bank of Japan apparently sits [...]
With the ECB openly admitting worries about its own QE trying to justify more of it and then China on Friday adding its own mix, the third consecutive “double shot” just since June 27, you can be forgiven for considering the idea that all this talk about a global economic downside is finally starting to be taken seriously. A little [...]
While on the other side of the Pacific economists try to decipher what China has truly gotten itself into, over the Atlantic the Europeans are admitting that trillion is again not “enough.” As I have written repeatedly, the adjectives attached to QE depend on the tense. Ahead of time, peering into the unwritten future, QE “will be” powerful and able, [...]
There must be a universal speech template included in the monetary textbook that is shared among the various central banks. On September 28, 2015, Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, delivered a speech that wasn’t just similar to the press conference Janet Yellen had endured only a week or so before, it was a close enough replica that [...]
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has become something of a spectacle in the past year or so. As the FOMC claims to be data dependent upon its on schedule for ending ZIRP, Bullard’s interjecting media appearances seem to straddle either side, the exact which he takes being dependent on maybe not data but at least markets. While stocks seem [...]
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