Throughout the 1990’s, calculated productivity in the US skyrocketed in what was taken then as a sign of monetary and economic genius, the “maestro” as it was. By the incomplete measures we have, that certainly seemed to be a plausible case. Starting in 1997, the BLS’s first measure for economic productivity, output per hour, surged. The consequence of that productivity [...]
When we talk about or estimate long run growth rates, we intend to encompass entire cycles. In other words, whatever the long run average of real GDP growth, for instance, it takes into account both recession and recovery to harmonize into what would be a constant trend or potential. From that view, we would expect that while growth would be [...]
The only economic data of note today was the notoriously unreliable personal income and spending figures. The data series contained within the suite are subject to not just major benchmark revisions but significant revisions within just the high frequency time frames. Perhaps the most pertinent example of this is the personal savings rate which has been revised all over the [...]
In June 2015, Japan’s Cabinet Office, the section of the government charged with tabulating and publishing gross domestic product estimates, revised Q1 2015 GDP significantly higher to 3.9% from its preliminary 2.7% figure. Not only was that the second straight quarter of positive growth, the acceleration indicated seemed to confirm that the Japanese economy had finally shaken off the effects [...]
Back in January and even into February, the idea of recession seemed no longer so far-fetched. The FOMC and orthodox economists had been claiming since late 2014 that the only economic fate was “full employment” and the satisfying economic conditions that accompany it. Instead, the latter half of 2015 turned uncomfortably close to the “impossible” nightmare scenario. What was totally [...]
Earlier I posted an article detailing the BEA's benchmark update for State & Regional level real GDP. After further research, I cannot verify the exact comparability between the two data series (vs. NIPA) leaving too many questions about the accuracy of my calculations. Rather than risk being misleading, I have removed the post altogether with a view toward updating the comparisons [...]
There has been a lot made of the fact that European GDP wasn’t worse in Q4, especially as Germany rallied to the continent’s economic defense. While initially the reactions were unabashedly positive, I think reality set in more so later after fuller digestion. In other words, everything we thought about Europe before today is still a problem, only that Germany [...]
In light of the enlightening of the full-scale of the first quarter’s disaster, it seems fitting to calculate the FOMC’s growth target with this new information. The current “central tendency” is estimated between 2.1% and 2.3% for calendar year 2014. Given these revised figures, the target for average real GDP of $16.084 trillion, just to get to 2.05%, is inordinately [...]
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