The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in doing so convinced the Chinese leadership to give growth one more try before changing the game entirely once stimulus inevitably failed. In many [...]
Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means [...]
Back in April, while she was quietly jockeying to make sure her name was placed at the top of the list to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, Christine Lagarde detoured into the topic of central bank independence. At a joint press conference held with the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, Lesetja Kganyago, as the Managing Director [...]
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell pretty sharply in October. At -0.71, that’s a reading which suggests the US economy may be operating significantly below trend. Fifty-eight of the 85 monthly indicators which make up the statistic made negative contributions. Of course, “below trend” is an imprecise term and doesn’t by itself stand up to the one question [...]
Building on the theme of midpoints, the current direction of the global economy, and the prospects for a Phase 2, the OECD provides us with another timely reminder about the way in which the global economy is developing. Not the good way. Releasing revised estimates for worldwide growth, the organization figures 2019 will be the slowest since 2009. In fact, [...]
Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like much, but in the context [...]
China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of Chinese officials. The entire world [...]
Yesterday, Eurostat confirmed that German GDP in Q2 2019 had contracted. Also issuing benchmark revisions, the European government agency found that GDP growth had been slightly better than previously thought at the top of Reflation #3. The last two quarters of 2017 saw the biggest upward revisions. But if Europe’s “boom” really was a little closer to having been a [...]
The key takeaway from Europe’s economic data dump today isn’t that the whole Continental economy is poised on the verge of recession, though that’s thrust of what’s being written about most. The reason is simple; this is all highly unexpected in the mainstream. Going by official accounts alone, there was never a hint of trouble before just recently. And many [...]
You aren’t going to find the worst economic quarter in Singapore’s modern history in either 2008 or 2009. It was actually posted in 2010. During the third quarter of that year, GDP declined by a whopping 11% annual rate. While that’s the biggest contraction still on record, initial government estimates thought it was closer to -20%. Singapore’s Monetary Authority wasn’t [...]
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