With the publication of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimates we get a better sense as to how not only the GDP calculations work internally (something largely hidden until now) but how GDP figures evolve with new pieces of information and settings. Along with their webpage snaphshot, the Fed branch has opened up its Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet for the whole world [...]
For Japan, the comparisons for March 2015 estimates are going to be tough as the yearly look-back aligns to March 2014 and the great surge prior to the tax increase. The distortive base effects make it more difficult to figure out just how little was gained (or lost) in spending and income. So the large granular declines are not suggestive [...]
According to the BLS, this has been the best jobs market in decades going back over a year now. After revisions, you can extend that narrative even into 2013 where it seems like QE3 and QE4 had a major impact on employment. That was the reason that Ben Bernanke appealed so curiously direct toward the unemployment rate in his defense [...]
As the “dollar” has taken back some of its pressure we are seeing at least some of the effects of that in various credit and funding markets. There can be no doubt now that the March 18, 2015, FOMC decision to at least position more “dovish” removed a great deal of “dollar” stress from the global network. To that end, [...]
The port strike on the West Coast of the US was finally resolved and goods began to flow more freely starting in February. That meant March’s import figures would be absolved of this aberration and we could begin to piece together the state of domestic “demand” without the blockage. Given that January and February figures were atrocious, it would stand [...]
Factory orders rebounded in March, though that term increasingly does not apply to the situation at hand. In seasonally-adjusted terms, March factory orders were about $10 billion more than February, a little over 2% month-over-month, but that doesn’t adequately describe the relevant context and trend. An actual rebound would suggest a quick and pain-free rejoining of a temporary deviation back [...]
Austerity has become a loaded concept, not the least of which has been tied to the very growing desire of issuers of past policies to delink them with our current situation. Primary among those is Ben Bernanke who has taken to blogging as a sort of obvious attempt at rehabilitation. Last week, I think, he really came out the worst [...]
Recognizing the danger of relying too much on a PMI, the official version of the Chinese PMI not only disappointed absent any detectable rebound it also contained at least a superficial indication that the US isn’t experiencing one either. Overall, the PMI stayed right at 50, for whatever that might be worth, but several key subcomponents moved deeper below that [...]
The monthly PCE and income figures that were released this week were already incorporated into the advance estimate for Q1 GDP. Given that March wasn’t as bad as it could have been, and that PCE within the GDP report was, that kind of gives you a sense for the serious deterioration in the US consumer; “unexpectedly.” If there is a [...]
So far, yesterday’s FOMC has not re-ignited the dreaded “rising dollar.” In fact, there hasn’t been much reaction at all as far as funding markets go. Even oil prices remain near their recent highs, with spot WTI as high as $59.40 so far this morning. That is, again, far more a reflection of this latest benign “dollar” than more fundamental [...]
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