Gold is down again today but the yen up past 119 toward 118.5; and the real crashing under 3.8 now. In other words, as yesterday, the “dollar” market is somewhat mixed. That view, however, is somewhat deceptive as the absence of further “dollar” pressure does not equate to renewed optimism and a serious move back near funding normalcy. A stroll [...]
The Jackson Hole gathering may end up providing at least some clarification, but not even close to the manner in which everyone seems intent on inferring. With Janet Yellen’s notable absence, there isn’t the same sort of celebrity about what would have been the media hanging upon every word; that is, after all, what the Federal Reserve has become, not [...]
It looks like the reversal of Monday’s dramatic and frightful liquidation has held and gained in the past two days. From that we can infer, of only the near-term, that those forced repositions were enough to square the liquidity imbalance from the latest “dollar” run. The two words are related not just in a common semantic root, as liquidations are [...]
To illustrate just how badly Monday’s selloff (and yesterday’s late day reversal) seems to have shaken core confidence in the overriding narrative (ALL IS WELL!) you need only view the drastic reversal on what stock prices supposedly mean. With QE’s producing little or no tangible economic benefit, certainly nothing specific with which its proponents can easily point to, they have [...]
It was another very heavy intervention in yuan last night for the PBOC, making that twice in just one week. The activity is so fierce as to be of similar proportions to the very tight Chinese New Year period, meaning that it is an understatement to say that the PBOC is under great strain. What is less defined, especially in [...]
In March 2013, orthodox economists were brimming with optimism. There were some rough patches in 2012, to be sure, but the Fed stepped up with a QE3 in MBS and then a QE4 in UST. Since the power of monetarism is a central pillar of the orthodox outlook, the future could only be even brighter than it was. The lackluster [...]
In another of the innumerable cosmic coincidences that so abound these days, producer prices in China have been in “deflation” since March 2012. Not only is that 41 consecutive months of falling prices (insofar as this index captures that effect), that month is ubiquitous as a trend demarcation in so many other places. It’s as if the Chinese economy and [...]
Yesterday was the eighth anniversary of the end of the eurodollar standard as a functioning system. Though the attainment of such dizzying scale was completely artificial, finance unbacked by real economy, it at least to that date had remained in more than superficial order. Reviewing the systemic break of that day remains quite useful in understanding where we are now, [...]
Given the outward expression of the “dollar” in various proxies, it is not surprising to see the inward development continue in the same pattern. Interbank rates and estimates are in many cases surging, particularly in the second half of July which matches the acceleration in the outward projections. This direction is nearly uniform, which confirms that the latest “dollar” problems [...]
With base comparisons out of the way moving past the calendar months of Japan’s tax change last year, the continuing recession re-emerges. Real wages fell 2.9% year-over-year in June despite “inflation” remaining far below (thankfully for the Japanese) Bank of Japan’s intentions. Contractual earnings nominally were slightly higher but “special cash earnings” fell 6.5% after rising 25% in May. That [...]
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