Rhetorically, I wondered yesterday what it was that economists and the media were actually looking at when opining about certain economic topics. That was in relation to German factory orders which are clearly moving in the “wrong” direction, to which that is supposed to be set aside in favor of “sentiment” and the ephemeral “confidence.” Neither of those words really [...]
The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just [...]
With a week to go before April 15, GC repo rates remain undisturbed from their recent elevated fashion. The rate of decline has also slowed appreciably, down to just a few pips today, as volume continues to be stable at an also raised level (compared to recent conditions). And despite the FOMC minutes, the eurodollar curve has only moves 1-2bps [...]
To add depth to the consumer credit version of consumer inclinations in 2015, Gallup’s estimates of daily spending in March came in at $86. That was only $4 greater than February’s $82 which hadn’t rebounded at all from January. In other words, there is “something” wrong with consumers so far in 2015, even as compared to prior years of lethargy. [...]
Consumer credit is somewhat useful as a gauge for actual consumer behavior in actual activity, as opposed to consumer sentiment surveys which tend to follow stock prices (and be dominated by the upper incomes) and the theory on the “wealth effect.” In terms of the current “cycle”, or supercycle as it may be, sentiment and debt could not be further [...]
The March FOMC statement that caused a serious inflection in so many places was a reality check upon not monetary policy but economic fluency. In some ways it is subtle by design, but the changes made between the policy statement in January and that in March were more obvious and open. I have to wonder how much the then-surging “dollar” [...]
For the fourth consecutive trading session, repo rates remain in an elevated state though there isn’t any obvious reason they are doing so. GC rates in all three classes were essentially unchanged from Monday, which leaves them unfamiliar with repo mechanics that existed prior to March 25. There was a sharp surge up to just shy of 25 bps (MBS) [...]
The frightening possibility that the US economy, and the world with it, remains still bound by a single “cycle” dating back to at least 2007 (and you could even argue 2000 or 1995) brings with it nothing good about future prospects. If 2009 wasn’t really the ultimate end then that would mean the true trough is still to be found. [...]
The June 2003 FOMC meeting is one of those events that has only taken on increased relevance and significance with time. That gathering marked a major shift in monetary policy as it was, particularly with relation to the fomented housing bubble, as the FOMC was debating the zero lower bound. The discussion centered around the proposed monetary alignment that would [...]
A stumble even in the Establishment Survey is not at all unexpected even in the best of times (in reality as opposed to purely statistical assumptions), however the furor unleashed over the March “weakness” is everything you need to know about how much surety rests within the estimate to begin with. Like human psychology, anyone who possesses a high degree [...]
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