Our strategic macro economic research partner has a max underweight recommendation for bonds. Why the hate? For starters, real yields are 0%. While certainly better than the first quarter of 2013, is 0% the best we can hope to earn from our savings and investment dollars? Given current levels of GDP and current earnings yields for equities, bonds are at some of [...]
The S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) zig-zagged with no certain direction for the first part of the year, gaining just under 1% during this somewhat volatile period. The index sits right above support below the 50-day moving average. Getting above and holding that level will be key to the direction of the market in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 Value Index ((IVE)), [...]
It's been almost 4 years since the last 10% correction in US stock prices, one of the longest stretches on record. Historically, on average, we get a 10% correction about every 18 months. More severe bear markets, declines of 20% or more, are associated with recessions which are hard to predict and fairly rare. Corrections are most often associated with [...]
From a purely, detached analytical perspective it is highly fascinating the possibility of observing a liquidity “development” in almost realtime whether one develops or not. If past patterns hold, and there isn’t any specific expectation for that other than heightened probability due to systemic recurrence, then April 15 is a target point for the next one in the series. This [...]
If there is actually a tight correlation between jobless claims and the Establishment Survey, as I think there is, then we should expect tomorrow’s payroll report to be totally in-line with recent months. That would be despite all the growing negativity in economic accounts elsewhere, but I think it is more and more apparent that trend-cycle analysis (or guesses) is [...]
In viewing incoming data for January, it looked as if the “dollar” being exactly right about the US economy’s place within the falling global economy was increasingly correct. At that time, the declines in many accounts were way beyond even what we saw of 2014’s “snowy” disruption. That itself suggested that any repeat in 2015 was more than simple repetition, [...]
Since there is no money in monetary policy, it isn’t all that surprising policymakers seem to have such little grasp of it. Ever since it became apparent that “something” was different after June 2014, the visibly rising “dollar” has become the fantasy du jour (after repeating that oil prices were sliding only due to “unexpected” record supply). It has gotten [...]
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