The year 1995 wasn’t exact a good year to remember. There was the Oklahoma City bombing, the San Diego tank rampage, the New Jersey Devils winning the Stanley Cup in a lockout shortened NHL season, and some former Buffalo Bills running back named OJ getting into trouble out in LA. Steve Forbes would announce his candidacy to challenge President Clinton [...]
Prudence: noun 1. The ability to govern and discipline oneself by the use of reason 2. Sagacity or shrewdness in the management of affairs 3. Skill and good judgment in the use of resources 4. Caution or circumspection as to danger or risk Synonyms: alertness, care, carefulness, cautiousness, chariness, circumspection, gingerliness, guardedness, heedfulness, caution, wariness Origin and etymology: Middle English, [...]
Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices for Part 4 of the Eurodollar University. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the failure of Primus and AIG back in 2008, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, Henry Paulson and Glass–Steagall. They further discuss the Eurodollar system going parabolic in the 2000s, Banks manipulating regulations and the big picture end game of the Eurodollar system. The [...]
Leveraged loan prices and WTI tracked each other pretty well during the "rising dollar", unsurprising given that the oil sector was over-represented in most new deals as the one truly booming part of the domestic US economy. That was the case on the rebound, too, where leveraged loan prices rose at the same time oil prices did. And then both [...]
Oil prices have had a very good run for several months now. Dating back to the recent low reached June 21, WTI is up an impressive 35% to a new two-year high. Crude hasn’t traded at $57 since June 2015. During this latest increase, the oil futures curve has finally achieved backwardation (which isn’t necessarily permanent). The long-awaited normalization is [...]
The Communist Chinese government views banking as a core industry, the securities business a core concept of banking. Their domestic sector has therefore been given preference and protection despite market reforms adopted elsewhere in China’s economy. Foreign bank presence has been ostensibly nothing, a fact that the government I believe wanted as a measure of symbolic openness rather than head [...]
If it is a day ending in “y” you can be sure there is somewhere in the financial press a story or “news report” of the looming bond selloff – even if it is due to some future event or made up phenomenon. Today’s is another in the series this time using a dramatized setup for technical analysis. A three [...]
One day after the China’s government reported disappointing but consistent trade figures, that country’s National Bureau of Statistics published inflation estimates that are being branded at least on this side of the Pacific as some degree of “hot.” As is usually the case, the characterization is wildly off. China is no closer now to an inflation problem, thus solid growth, [...]
While I commend the mainstream media for refraining the past few months from their orthodox tendencies to shout BOND ROUT!!! every time long Treasury yields rise for more than a few days at a time, that doesn’t mean the total absence of the ridiculous. With the long end once again trending lower in nominal yields, the curve has utterly collapsed [...]
Federal Reserve revisions to the Consumer Credit series have created some discontinuities in the data. Changes were applied cumulatively to December 2015 alone, rather than revising downward the whole data series prior to that month. The Fed therefore estimates $3.531 trillion in outstanding consumer credit (seasonally-adjusted) in November 2015, and then just $3.417 trillion the following month. Of that $114.3 [...]
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