Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits - 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) - 2.2% Munis (3yr) - 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds - 1.08% US Bonds - 0.76% Cash - 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign Small Caps, Preferred Stock and [...]
The wedge pattern that was formed by the S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) finally resolved itself with a big move downward in August. The market corrected to the 1867 and retested that low in late September, before fully recovering to near all-time highs. Now we are in the midst of another wedge pattern. Will we witness more of the same? The index [...]
Lower oil prices provides tailwind and extends the current, elongated economic cycle Buy competitiveness Watch how China is managing their slowdown (money supply contraction and currency devaluation) Foreign equities outperform during rate hike cycles Bonds are vulnerable Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners’ money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas [...]
The graph below shows where to, historically, find out-performance given our likely position in the economic cycle. Some caveats of note to the generalized history shown. One is wise to consider both interest rate manipulation and behavioral factors stemming from and contributing to the extreme markets of the last 2 decades before blindly accepting this style and size equation. These factors give us reason to [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then broke strong support at the 50 and 200-day moving averages after a remarkable rebound from its crushing meltdown earlier this year. We may once again test resistance at the previous lows in the next few weeks. The S&P 500 is down 0.35% for the year. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index [...]
Global Growth Recession risks are low and growth should improve in 2016. Excess supply is especially apparent in the raw materials/commodities sectors. This state of overcapacity/supply and a strong dollar combined from 2014-2015 to create an environment of falling prices and sluggish growth in global manufacturing. The services sector continues to perform well. Continued expansion in the US coupled with a recovering [...]
Within the last two months, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has rebounded remarkably from the lows made in late August, breaking above both moving averages and getting close to new all-time highs. And after a whirlwind week, in which the market both fell and rose vehemently because interest rates are due to rise (wtf!?, can't you make up your mind?), the index [...]
The wedge pattern that was formed by the S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) finally resolved itself with a big move downward in August. The market corrected to the 1867 and retested that low in late September. Since the beginning of October, the market bounced off that level and has been on a tear, surging all the way up to the 2116 level. [...]
This chart from our strategic macro research partner shows the incredible length of stimulus. Has the current, prolonged period of unchanged FED policy rate of 0% conditioned investors to think this level of interest rates is the new normal? The FOMC looks to be ready to embark on a period of raising interest rates. If 10 yr bond yields [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 50-day moving average (at least for now) during this remarkable rebound from its crushing meltdown earlier this year. We may once again test resistance at the previous breakdown level (2100) this coming week. The S&P 500 is up 3.45% for the year. The S&P [...]
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