Chicago Fed Activities Index An expected drop in Oct versus strong Sept. We are near concerning levels which would be below -.5. Fuel Prices Continuing down. Existing Home Sales Sales are down again and inventory is up. This is all about affordability. Many home owners are locked into their home because of the large difference between their existing mortgage and [...]
"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in October." LEI signaling a shallow recession. The index is down 3.3% in the last 3 months and -.8% in October. I hate to compare cycles, but the machine does and there are certainly similarities. The similarities became apparent with the release of CPI last week. In June of 2006 [...]
Industrial production continues to show negative growth. This was perhaps the most important release of a busy week. It was atleast the one that had the greatest effect on GDPNow (unfortunately to the downside). This month is much about the auto industry. There have been some headlines about Americans broadly shunning EV's and inventory building on parking lots. The reasoning [...]
There's been a 4-week upswing in claims with the current week having the largest number of additional claims. There are 31,000 more claims this week than a month ago. Another month like this and we'll be looking at the highest number of claims in the past 2 years. The absolute level of claims is not concerning, just noting the shift [...]
Housing starts and housing permits issued are settling in at their respective historic mean. GDPNow didn't budge on the release. Activity was higher in 2022 and has found a comfort level here in 2023. We have seen some build in inventories and some pricing pressure as activity has come down but not anything of concern. Disclaimer: This information [...]
Current conditions and activity were reported a bit better than October although activity still remains in negative territory. New orders ticked down in Nov versus Oct. The general trend is still positive, but we don't want to see further weakness below the quick and dirty trend line. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]
Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn't the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential number was expected at -.3% [...]
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
Small businesses continue to be pessimistic. The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index came in down .1 at 90.7. The survey measures opinions about business and economic conditions in October relative to September. This is the 22nd straight month that the index has been below 98, the 50 year historic average. The most cited reason for pessimism is they [...]
The trend for consumer sentiment is still higher off the lows in the summer of 2022. But I am concerned about that trend. This month's preliminary number is 60.4. That is 4 monthly declines in a row and a new 6-month low. Additionally, inflation expectations ticked up to 4.4% from 4.2%. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only [...]
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