The populist pathology is incredibly simple; no one ever takes the blame. Things continually go off-track and officials merely shrug their shoulders and point their fingers. The very idea of accountability is anachronistic. Now that dark clouds are gathering, in the IMF’s words, the fingers are out again. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he does not like the Federal [...]
There was an old joke among bond investors that use to say no AAA-rated bond had ever defaulted…because it was downgraded several times first. By the time the issuer was in restructuring, it was junk accredited long before then. It ceased being funny around February 2007. There is something similar and similarly tragic that takes place in the wider macro [...]
It’s one of those useless explanations that while technically true tells us nothing of value about the situation. The Chinese are never boring when coming back from a Golden Week holiday. This weekend was no exception, China’s reopening bringing with it the news of yet another cut in that country’s bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR). Following two already, one for [...]
The year 2012 was a turning point, there can be no doubts about that. At least not when objectively and honestly reviewing the data. Up until the worldwide slowdown that hit that year, starting the year before, 2011, in an “unexpected” flareup of global monetary crisis, the Great “Recession” was viewed as harsh, even prolonged. But in the end everyone [...]
It was coming, it wasn’t coming. On again, off again. Voluntary evacuations, all clears, and then the rushed mandatory removals. When Hurricane Bonnie finally made landfall, it left people more angry than usual with these kinds of storms. Weather officials just didn’t know where it would end up. In eventually would smack right into Virginia’s Tidewater region, after wreaking variable [...]
Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists on both sides applauded the [...]
Jay Powell is on the warpath, he thinks. Some aren’t so sure, though. At his last press conference, the one held on September 26 after the last “rate hike”, someone in the media actually asked him about the impact of rising interest rates. And not in a good way. His answer would apply to a broad cross section of the [...]
On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND [...]
On March 9, 2007, Rhode Island Representative Patrick Kennedy introduced HR 1424. At the time it was to be known as the Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act of 2007. The bill contained five small sections intending to ensure equal coverage and treatment for mental health issues under insurance claims. It passed the House but then gained an [...]
Eurobonds are not a perfect substitute, but they may be someone’s only alternative. In some ways, Reflation #3’s weakness can be found originating in this context. The “rising dollar”, or eurodollar squeeze, of 2014-16 was a failure and even run on credit-based dollar funding offshore. If banks won’t deliver dollars, what’s left? Bonds. There has been an offshore Eurobond market [...]
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