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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

IP Weathers Storms But Not Cars

By |2017-09-15T16:05:09-04:00September 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late August 2006, ABC News asked more than a dozen prominent economists to evaluate the impacts of hurricane Katrina on the US economy. The cataclysmic storm made landfall on August 29, 2005, devastating the city of New Orleans and the surrounding Gulf coast. The cost in human terms was unthinkable, and many were concerned, as people always are, that [...]

Retail Sales and the End of ‘Reflation’

By |2017-09-15T11:52:59-04:00September 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There will be an irresistible urge to the make this about the weather, but more and more data shows it’s not any singular instance. Nor is it transitory. What does prove to be temporary time and again is the upside. The economy gets hit (by “dollar” events), bounces back a little, and then goes right back into the dumps. This, [...]

The CPI Comes Home

By |2017-09-14T18:24:14-04:00September 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There seems to be an intense if at times acrimonious debate raging inside the Federal Reserve right now. The differences go down to its very core philosophies. Just over a week ago, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer abruptly resigned from the Board of Governors even though many believed he was a possible candidate to replace Chairman Yellen at the end of [...]

A Clear Anchor

By |2017-09-14T17:37:32-04:00September 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All the way back in January I calculated the total size of China’s 2016 fiscal “stimulus.” Starting in January 2016, authorities conducted what was an enormous spending program. As it had twice before, the government directed increased “investment” from State-owned Enterprises (SOE). By my back-of-the-envelope numbers, the scale of this fiscal side program was about RMB 1.45 trillion, or nearly [...]

Harvey’s Muted (Price) Impact On Oil

By |2017-09-13T16:41:02-04:00September 13th, 2017|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The impact of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf energy region is becoming clear. There have been no surprises to date, even though the storm did considerable damage and shuttered or disrupted significant capacity. Most of that related to gasoline, which Americans have been feeling in pump prices. According to the US Department of Energy, as of August 31, 10 refineries [...]

When You Are Prevented From Connecting The Dots That You See

By |2017-09-13T12:21:19-04:00September 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In its first run, the Federal Reserve was actually two distinct parts. There were the twelve bank branches scattered throughout the country, each headed by almost always a banker of local character. Often opposed to them was the Board in DC. In those early days the policy establishment in Washington had little active role. Monetary policy was itself a product [...]

Checking In On Brazil and the Global Economy’s Evident Capacity For Shrinking

By |2017-09-12T18:28:56-04:00September 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of all the countries around the world impacted by the “rising dollar”, Brazil got the worst of it, at least out of the major economies. What Brazilians have experienced over the past four years is nothing short of 1929-style collapse. By every economic statistic, that economy has been utterly devastated. In Q2, however, real GDP rose year-over-year for the first [...]

F-I-C-C Spells Money

By |2017-09-12T16:54:26-04:00September 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How many little pieces of conventional wisdom never hold up to scrutiny? Things get repeated over and over until they are so common that no one ever stops and thinks about them. It isn’t really nefarious like the Big Lie, more just shorthand that may have made perfect sense at one time but has become anachronistically handicapped as the world [...]

The JOLTS of Drugs

By |2017-09-12T12:08:46-04:00September 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Princeton University economist Alan Krueger recently published and presented his paper for Brookings on the opioid crisis and its genesis. Having been declared a national emergency, there are as many economic as well as health issues related to the tragedy. Economists especially those at the Federal Reserve are keen to see this drug abuse as socio-demographic in nature so as to [...]

COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

By |2017-09-11T18:53:13-04:00September 11th, 2017|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year. It [...]

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