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About Jeffrey P. Snider

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CNY’s Drop Wasn’t ‘Devaluation’ in ’15 nor ’18, and It Isn’t ‘Devaluation’ Now

By |2022-04-25T17:49:34-04:00April 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For one thing, that whole Bretton Woods 3 thing is really off to an interesting start. And by interesting, I mean predictably backward. According to its loud and leading proponent, China’s yuan was supposed to be ascending while the dollar sank, its first step toward what many still claim will end up in some biblical-like abyss. Instead, CNY is doing [...]

I’m ‘Officially’ Calling It: Euro$ #5

By |2022-04-22T16:46:23-04:00April 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This must be what the NBER feels like. That group of academic Economists simply took up the job of “declaring” each end of the business cycle. No one seems to have asked them to, nor was there any mandate official or otherwise. Sensing the opportunity, believing the job in keeping with the organization’s competence, or self-assessment of it, the NBER [...]

Re-Inversion + CNY

By |2022-04-21T20:09:51-04:00April 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the third month in a row, China’s PBOC refrained from guiding its quasi-credit benchmark lower. This seemed out of line with what Premier Li Keqiang, in particular, had stated last week before authorities did drop the RRR rate on Friday. Saying that China would “step up” support for its faltering economy, however the RRR cut was half of what [...]

China, Japan, And The Relative Pre-March Euro$ Calm In February

By |2022-04-20T19:50:24-04:00April 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The month of February 2022, the calm before the latest storm. Russians went into Ukraine toward the month’s end, collateral shortage became scarcity, maybe a run right at February’s final day, and then serious escalations all throughout March – right down to pure US Treasury yield curve inversion.Given that setup, it was unsurprising to find Treasury’s February TIC data mostly [...]

The (less) Dollars Behind Xi’s Shanghai of Shanghai

By |2022-04-19T20:29:36-04:00April 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What everyone is saying, because it’s convenient, is that China’s zero-COVID policies are going to harm the economy. No. Economic harm of the past is the reason for the zero-COVID policies. As I showed yesterday, the cracking down didn’t just show up around 2020, begun right out in the open years beforehand, born from the scattering ashes of globally synchronized [...]

I Told You It *Wasn’t* Money Printing; How The Fed Helped Cause, But Can’t Solve, Our Current ‘Inflation’

By |2022-04-19T17:38:29-04:00April 19th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trust the Fed. Ha! It’s one thing for money dealers to look upon Jay Powell’s stash of bank reserves with remarkable disdain, more immediately damning when effects of the same liquidity premiums in the real economy create serious frictions leaving the entire world exposed to the consequences. When all is said and done, the Federal Reserve has created its own [...]

Shanghai’s Current Plight Began in 2017

By |2022-04-18T20:46:36-04:00April 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first chapters to China’s new story now playing out in Shanghai were written down in October 2017. Planning for them had begun years earlier, their author Xi Jinping requiring more research before committing them to paper. Communist authorities there had grown increasingly concerned about the lack of growth potential for its political system by then utterly dependent for a [...]

Not Good Goods

By |2022-04-18T17:56:44-04:00April 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The goods economy in the United States is – maybe was - the lone economic bright spot. That in and of itself should’ve provoked more caution, instead there was the red-hot recovery to sell under the cover of supply shock pricing changes. The sheer spending on goods, and how they arrived, each unabashedly artificial from the get-go.Combine those two factors, [...]

Yield Curve Inversion Was/Is Absolutely All About Collateral

By |2022-04-15T01:49:20-04:00April 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there was a compelling collateral case for bending the Treasury yield curve toward inversion beginning last October, what follows is the update for the twist itself. As collateral scarcity became shortage then a pretty substantial run, that was the very moment yield curve flattening became inverted.Just like October, you can actually see it all unfold.According to the latest FRBNY [...]

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