Economy

China’s Nineties Fears, Not Just Japan

By |2018-10-05T13:01:34-04:00October 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The year 2012 was a turning point, there can be no doubts about that. At least not when objectively and honestly reviewing the data. Up until the worldwide slowdown that hit that year, starting the year before, 2011, in an “unexpected” flareup of global monetary crisis, the Great “Recession” was viewed as harsh, even prolonged. But in the end everyone [...]

Tropical Labor Math

By |2018-10-05T12:00:35-04:00October 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was coming, it wasn’t coming. On again, off again. Voluntary evacuations, all clears, and then the rushed mandatory removals. When Hurricane Bonnie finally made landfall, it left people more angry than usual with these kinds of storms. Weather officials just didn’t know where it would end up. In eventually would smack right into Virginia’s Tidewater region, after wreaking variable [...]

Worker Wages And Who Is Really Winning

By |2018-10-04T18:19:59-04:00October 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists on both sides applauded the [...]

The Hawk Not In Housing (nor Capex)

By |2018-10-04T17:27:11-04:00October 4th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jay Powell is on the warpath, he thinks. Some aren’t so sure, though. At his last press conference, the one held on September 26 after the last “rate hike”, someone in the media actually asked him about the impact of rising interest rates. And not in a good way. His answer would apply to a broad cross section of the [...]

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31-04:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND [...]

Oh Yes, It Started Out As A Mental Health Bill

By |2018-10-03T16:43:10-04:00October 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On March 9, 2007, Rhode Island Representative Patrick Kennedy introduced HR 1424. At the time it was to be known as the Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act of 2007. The bill contained five small sections intending to ensure equal coverage and treatment for mental health issues under insurance claims. It passed the House but then gained an [...]

They Want To Call It India’s Lehman, It’s Just Dollar

By |2018-10-02T18:08:44-04:00October 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurobonds are not a perfect substitute, but they may be someone’s only alternative. In some ways, Reflation #3’s weakness can be found originating in this context. The “rising dollar”, or eurodollar squeeze, of 2014-16 was a failure and even run on credit-based dollar funding offshore. If banks won’t deliver dollars, what’s left? Bonds. There has been an offshore Eurobond market [...]

Tighten Those Hatches Further

By |2018-10-02T17:06:09-04:00October 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eventually, it comes for everyone. They say that the only sure things in life are death and taxes. While true, over the last eleven years we’ve come to depend on another “d”, dollar. Sure, the US economy can decouple, but only for a while. To this point, the eurodollar is undefeated. There seems to be a lot of surprise about [...]

China’s Industrial Dollar

By |2018-10-01T18:32:06-04:00October 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven. To keep China [...]

Rolling Over

By |2018-10-01T16:05:29-04:00October 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here they come. After spending more than a year talking about nothing but good things ahead for the global economy, Economists are beginning to sound worried. In 2017, there wasn’t anything that could stand in the way of synchronized growth. In 2018, there’s no longer any synchronized growth, so now we can talk about what was standing in the way. [...]

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