Economy

Crude Dollar Trade

By |2018-09-05T11:22:46-04:00September 5th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 7, 1973, President Richard Nixon addressed the nation via a broadcast television appearance. The topic wasn’t what you might think. Rather than trying to reassure Americans about the unfolding Watergate scandal, Nixon instead attempted to encourage the country about its energy situation. The month before, Egypt and Syria had launched a surprise attack against Israel. Arab members of [...]

Half A Decade Later, Here We Are Confused Again

By |2018-09-04T18:16:36-04:00September 4th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things are processes. They take time, a lot of time. Given that, I keep coming back to what might otherwise seem an absurd idea. The best-case scenario for all of us just might be a global crash, one that would make 2008 blush. At least then it might afford the world the benefit of unambiguousness. We almost got there [...]

Capex and Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About the Economy

By |2018-09-04T16:57:57-04:00September 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Private US businesses are not building new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that suggests the economy is doing well. Let alone booming. For more than two years now, the aggregate level of Private Non-residential Construction Spending has been flat. According to the Census Bureau in figures released today, construction capex in July 2018 (seasonally adjusted) was less [...]

Unhappy Labor (Day)

By |2018-09-04T13:04:16-04:00September 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In November 1929, faced with the growing prospects for serious economic reverse, President Herbert Hoover gathered the heads of major American industrial businesses to confer at the White House. Primary on his agenda was wages. For workers, depression was simple. Work was hard to find but more than that what labor might be exchanged would be paid for at a [...]

ECB At A (Familiar) Crossroads

By |2018-08-31T17:05:54-04:00August 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to concede there had been at [...]

The First Global Domino Tips

By |2018-08-31T12:38:35-04:00August 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s hard to believe it was only about three months ago. Time flies when disaster unfolds all around you. In early June, Brazil’s central bank arranged a press conference where its President Ilan Goldfajn would set everyone straight. The currency was falling, he admitted, but it would be easily handled by closely following the Portuguese version of the global central [...]

The Anticipation For The 2011 Inflation Case

By |2018-08-30T18:19:07-04:00August 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PCE Deflator rose 2.31% year-over-year in July 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That makes five in a row for Jay Powell to try to make his case. Prior to March, the central bank had missed its target for the PCE Deflator in 68 out of 70 months using the 2012 dollar reference. Has something changed? Yes [...]

‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

By |2018-08-30T16:27:35-04:00August 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the [...]

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much

By |2018-08-29T17:23:13-04:00August 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky high. The business association’s index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn’t seen since the apex of the dot-com days. Though I’m not sure that’s really a positive reflection on the economy, the mainstream verdict is as usual quite different. U.S. consumer confidence surged to near an 18-year high [...]

What’s On Peoples’ Minds? Not Inflation

By |2018-08-29T15:54:49-04:00August 29th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are a few pretty good indications that inflation hysteria is long dead. Since this was one of the more extreme forms, it’s also relevant in parsing any shift from reflation back to deflation. There are any number of markets suggesting as much already. Still, this one really has to sting for sunny, confident Jerome Powell. From the St. Louis [...]

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