Housing prices were coming down this time last year. But, despite mortgage rates at their highest levels since 2000, housing prices are again appreciating and reached an all-time high in August. Summary Conclusions: Housing Affordability lowest since the early 80's, surpassing 2006. Prices at an all-time high and rising. Housing sales volume approaching the lowest of the last 25 years. [...]
The current business environment dropped to it's lowest level of 2023, -18.2, meaning 18.2% more of those surveyed think the economy slowed since last period. This mirrors economic readings from the earlier regional surveys. Yes, slowing activity, but Q3 was very strong, so not completely unexpected. If the trend continues after this softening, we will be at levels which cause [...]
Just confirming, wage growth is running around 4.5%. This is still elevated relative to history and not consistent with an inflation target of 2%. But the growth is coming down. Government wages actually had an uptick in the 3rd qtr. I would not expect that to continue. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]
After a big optimistic jump in new orders in September there is a slight down tick in both survey categories. So, a few more respondents reporting decreasing activity. Activity isn't increasing, but the small change doesn't indicate deterioration. Status quo until next month's releases. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an [...]
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of the growth I'd like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing. I know we had excess savings from government transfers to the private sector. But we also had excess spending [...]
If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that's ok, the world doesn't work in perfectly smooth arcs and waves. The month over month annualized rate is a shorter term (very volatile) rate. As such, it will lead when there [...]
Measures of inflation GDP price deflator: 3.24% Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index YoY: 3.43% Core PCE (ex-Food and Energy): 3.9% All well above 2% target. All have been coming down. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None [...]
This is a canary in the coal mine series. All Clear. How good are these low levels of claims? We didn't have this few people claiming unemployment from 1969 to 2018. If I had to nitpick something, continuing claims have risen some, perhaps an indication that jobs are a bit harder to find. But there's no doubt that companies are [...]
Stay In Touch