New orders for Durable Goods looks good on the surface, up 4.7% just from last month and 7.8% from a year ago. The headline number showed an increase of $13.215B. Non-defense aircraft orders were up $15.5B, so the aggregate of everything else was down on the month. New Orders for Sep. Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft is a good proxy [...]
Prices peaked in Oct 2022 and came down about 9% by May 2023. People took advantage of the lower prices and sales went up in the 3rd quarter. As such, prices are up in the 3rd quarter. There are about 35% more units for sale than the historic average. About 2/3 of these units are currently under construction. Completed inventory [...]
Continued weakness in the Philly district. A down tick after recent strength in the Richmond District (W.V., V, NC, SC). Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or [...]
The initial print for October was good in the US. Europe continues to struggle. Japan weakens slightly. The UK flat-lines below 50. Australia drops. Numbers above 50 should indicate an economy is growing. FWIW, this data has been very choppy and even enigmatic. Composite Output Index US -- 51, up from 50.2 (a 3 month high) Eurozone -- 46.5, down [...]
Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]
This Fed report is meant to be a broad assessment of financial system stability. It's purpose is transparency in an attempt to identify vulnerabilities in the system not to try to identify areas for possible shocks. It looks at 4 broad categories and how they interact. Asset Price Valuation Household and Business Borrowing (Level) Financial Sector Leverage (Level) Funding (Current [...]
Higher lows and higher highs---heading in the right direction since late last year. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions [...]
Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]
As a weekly number, this is your leading indicator for employment and it just broke below 200,000 again after a recent peak of 265,000 in early June. It continues to be historically fantastic, better than about 95% of history going back to 1967. Btw, I did remove some of the data from 2020, the unprecedented jump in claims to close [...]
I've been reading some lately about all the housing units that are coming to market and the likely hit to house prices and rents that will accompany this supply. Looking at the housing pipeline (Units permitted but not started + Units started + Units under construction + Units completed this month), we are elevated by about 680,000 units on an [...]
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