Economy - Alhambra Investments

Macro: Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-31T19:40:12-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

From the press release: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey "US Consumer Confidence fell again in October." "Consumers remain pessimistic about the future--even as they continued to spend." "The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell slightly to [...]

Macro: Chicago Business Barometer

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-31T18:50:11-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

Similar to other regional surveys, down .1 from September and near the average for the year. Soft conditions. We need directional confirmation. Chicago Business Barometer Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes [...]

Macro: House Prices — All-time Highs

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-31T17:50:23-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

Housing prices were coming down this time last year. But, despite mortgage rates at their highest levels since 2000, housing prices are again appreciating and reached an all-time high in August. Summary Conclusions: Housing Affordability lowest since the early 80's, surpassing 2006. Prices at an all-time high and rising. Housing sales volume approaching the lowest of the last 25 years. [...]

Macro: Texas Services Survey

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-31T14:35:47-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

The current business environment dropped to it's lowest level of 2023, -18.2, meaning 18.2% more of those surveyed think the economy slowed since last period. This mirrors economic readings from the earlier regional surveys. Yes, slowing activity, but Q3 was very strong, so not completely unexpected. If the trend continues after this softening, we will be at levels which cause [...]

Macro: Employment Cost Index

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-31T10:24:06-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

Just confirming, wage growth is running around 4.5%. This is still elevated relative to history and not consistent with an inflation target of 2%. But the growth is coming down. Government wages actually had an uptick in the 3rd qtr. I would not expect that to continue. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]

Macro: Texas Manufacturing

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-30T18:29:26-04:00October 30th, 2023|Economy|

After a big optimistic jump in new orders in September there is a slight down tick in both survey categories. So, a few more respondents reporting decreasing activity. Activity isn't increasing, but the small change doesn't indicate deterioration. Status quo until next month's releases. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Follow Buffett’s Rule
Weekly Market Pulse: Follow Buffett’s Rule

Weekly Market Pulse: Follow Buffett’s Rule

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2023-10-30T06:59:00-04:00October 30th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]

Macro: Personal Income and Outlays

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-28T18:45:57-04:00October 28th, 2023|Economy|

The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of the growth I'd like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing. I know we had excess savings from government transfers to the private sector. But we also had excess spending [...]

Macro: Inflation — High frequencies and crude keep Powell up at night

By Douglas R. Terry, CFA|2023-10-27T17:19:54-04:00October 27th, 2023|Economy, Markets|

If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that's ok, the world doesn't work in perfectly smooth arcs and waves. The month over month annualized rate is a shorter term (very volatile) rate. As such, it will lead when there [...]