The job, as Jay Powell currently sees it, means building up the S&P 500 as sky high as it can go. The FOMC used to pay lip service to valuations, but now everything is different. He’ll signal to all those fund managers by QE raising bank reserves, leading them on in what they all want to believe is “money printing” [...]
The Federal Reserve’s models really are the most optimistic of the bunch. With the policy meeting conducted today, no surprises as far as policies go, we now know what ferbus has to say about everything that’s happened this year. Skipping the usual March projections, what with the FOMC totally occupied at the time by a complete global monetary meltdown Jay [...]
According to Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), the production of light automobiles rebounded in May 2020. Up more than 494% from April, the country managed to piece together 22 thousand units last month. And that was still 93.7% fewer than had been assembled during May 2019.Auto production had been down almost 99%, so the rebound to -93.7% [...]
Around the same time Lehman Brothers and AIG became headline news in the middle of September 2008, none of the mainstream econometric models thought it was possible for the US economy to suffer so severe a shock that it would induce monetary policymakers to unleash ZIRP. Worse, the models all predicted that it would be impossible for anything to force [...]
The NBER has made its formal declaration. Surprising no one, as usual this group of mainstream academic Economists wishes to tell us what we already know. At least this time their determination of recession is noticeably closer to the beginning of the actual event. The Great “Recession”, you might recall, wasn’t even classified as an “official” contraction until December 2008 [...]
Credit card use entails a degree of risk appreciated at the most basic level. Americans had certainly become more comfortable with debt in all its forms over the many decades since the Great Depression, but the regular employment of revolving credit was perhaps the apex of this transformation. Does any commercial package on TV today not include one or more [...]
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/9xDka3RtxEk Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] Millennials may not know this, but many centuries ago mail came by bag not by vibration nor beep. Legendary figures took on the mantle of "Mail Carrier!" including: founding father Benjamin Franklin, Wells Fargo cowboys of the Pony Express, and nice guy Mr. McFeely from Mr. [...]
A perpetual motion machine is impossible, but what about a perpetual inflation machine? This is supposed to be the printing press and central banks are, they like to say, putting it to good and heavy use. But never the inflation by which to confirm it.So round and round we go. The printing press necessary to bring about consumer price acceleration, [...]
So, you’re convinced that low rates are powerful stimulus. You believe, like any good standing Economist, that reduced interest costs can only lead to more credit across-the-board. That with more credit will emerge more economic activity and, better, activity of the inflationary variety. A recovery, in other words. Ceteris paribus. What happens, however, if you also believe you’ve been responsible [...]
It’s called survivor’s or survival euphoria. Having just gone through a traumatically dangerous experience, and lived, a person might naturally become euphoric for it. Not uncommon in combat situations, your body marshals all its resources including many physiological responses and counteractions. When it’s all over, there’s evolution working overtime in your brain rewarding these survival instincts.And it can be a [...]
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