In the initial days and weeks of the COVID (overreaction) shutdown, layoffs and furloughs were mostly a function of that very thing. A non-economic disruption. As time has gone on, however, continued joblessness can only be a function of economic factors meaning a huge problem (deflation) that isn’t being solved by time. Because of this huge “surprise” in employment data, [...]
According to Germany’s ZEW, economic prospects for the intermediate future in that country (and for Europe, separate survey) haven’t been this positive since 2006. Back then you might remember the rip-roaring contributions of asset bubbles, and I don’t mean the stock market and valuations. A huge wave of credit expansion in pretty much every corner of the globe courtesy of [...]
On March 15, 2013, the US Treasury Department issued a request for a “large position report” (17 CFR Part 420). Any institution holding $2 billion or more of the 2% notes expiring in February 2023 (10-year maturity) had until March 21 to disclose that fact to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (faxed disclosures accepted). The repo rate for [...]
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does [...]
It’s a behavioral shift, one we’ve seen before. Misunderstood because of idiocy like QE, even those who’ve undergone the change fail to appreciate the deeper meaning behind it. Not just at the firm-level, more so systemically. GFC1 had left everyone, even the best of businesses, essentially stranded fighting for their lives. Lost revenue was secondary to daily survival.Liquidity.Among the grandest [...]
These numbers do seem epic, don’t they? It’s hard to ignore when you have the greatest percentage increase in the history of a major economic account. Just writing that sentence it’s difficult to deny the power of those words. Which is precisely the point: we already know ahead of time how the biggest economic holes in history are going to [...]
Just a quick update to add a little more data and color to my last Friday’s swap line criticism so hopefully you can better see how there is intentional activity behind them. Since a few people have asked, I’ll break them out with a little more detail. While the volume of swaps outstanding at the Fed has, in total, remained [...]
Here they are again, seemingly at odds over how to proceed. Reminiscent of prior battles over whether to revive the economy or just let it go where it will, it appears as if China is in for Xi vs. Li Round 2. Or is it all just clever politics?Li Keqiang may be nominally the Chinese Premier but he’s a very [...]
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa Pocketcast: https://pca.st/encarkdt Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/a3_txb_PhrM Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] American books and films published in 1925 will be entering the public domain next year. Included among them will be The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Upon its release the book was met with popular indifference. And [...]
In its earliest years, the Discount Window wasn’t something to be avoided at all costs, it was nearly the whole point. In order to supply largely seasonal liquidity, the word “discount” meant banks could show up at one of the local 12 Fed branches and post collateral for an increase in their reserve balance. No one would be stuck holding [...]
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