Currencies

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-27T18:20:45-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

CHANNELS: iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google Podcasts: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Emil-Tube: https://youtu.be/yqmVom5lq58 Alhambra-Tube: below SUMMARY: Ancient myths, like the Minotaur of Crete, Monkey King or Odin, are not taken seriously. But modern myths, like the Greenspan Put, the Bank of Japan buying stocks or bond kings selling Treasuries, not only are taken seriously, but acted upon. KEYWORDS: Eurodollar University, Jeff Snider, [...]

COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-27T18:13:03-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.Because of this set [...]

TED’s Not Dead Because Jay Don’t Pay, Just Like Ben Couldn’t Then

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-24T18:36:58-04:00April 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was chaos. Rumors of not one but two large European banks being pushed to the brink. Money market funds worried about breaking the buck rapidly pulling cash out from under any global name. The FOMC debating what would’ve been a repo-like bailout, even though $1.6 trillion of bank reserves had been “added” to the system. What was most damaging [...]

What Might It Mean As Global PMI’s Move In Sight Of Reaching Zero?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-23T18:46:41-04:00April 23rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Can a PMI actually hit zero? We may be about to find out. According to IHS Markit, the Eurozone’s economy is already flirting with that boundary this month. The services index plummeted way beyond March’s revised estimate of 26.4, an astoundingly alarming number in its own way. For April, though, down even more all the way to 11.7. That meant [...]

An International Puppet Show

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-22T19:31:45-04:00April 22nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s actually pretty easy to see why the IMF is in a hurry to secure more resources. I’m not talking about potential bailout candidates banging down the doors; that’s already happened. The fund itself is doing two contradictory things simultaneously: telling the world, repeatedly, that it has a highly encouraging $1 trillion in bailout capacity at the same time it [...]

What Was Monday’s Negative Oil, And Why It Was Overshadowed On Tuesday

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-22T11:59:46-04:00April 22nd, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, the WTI curve flipped to [...]

The Fallen Kings & The Bond Throne of Collateral

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-21T18:54:57-04:00April 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is no schadenfreude at times like these, no time to dance on anyone’s grave. Victory laps are a luxury that only central bankers take – always prematurely. The world already coming apart because of GFC1, what comes next with GFC2 and then whatever follows it? Another “bond king” has thrown in the towel. Franklin Templeton’s candidate for the title [...]

OPEC + Reality
OPEC + Reality

OPEC + Reality

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2020-04-22T13:54:52-04:00April 21st, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Two weeks ago, OPEC+ and the US came to a deal to cut crude oil production. President Trump hailed the deal, saying it would save “hundreds of thousands” of oil patch jobs. The Texas Railroad Commission meets today to “consider” a cut in oil production in the Lone Star state. Meanwhile, the market has made all this high-level negotiating irrelevant, [...]

The Greenspan Bell

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-21T15:59:52-04:00April 21st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?My very first day on the job, [...]

‘Something’ Sure Seems Off

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2020-04-20T19:31:48-04:00April 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seemed like an odd, counterintuitive market reaction to what was total chaos. First the news of Lehman Brothers followed closely by AIG, panic gripped every corner of the global marketplace. Toward late September 2008, the stock market would meltdown (the main part of GFC1 that most people associate with the term) in a wave of liquidations due to a [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths

OPEC + Reality

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