You don’t always have to understand the minute details behind these things to gain a sense of what they mean. I’m talking about things like negative swap spreads and related. From the textbook view, a negative spread makes no sense at all. On the surface, it seems to suggest the market thinks financial counterparties are less risky than the US [...]
Real GDP growth in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 was much better than expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Most analysts were expecting somewhere around 2.3% to 2.5%. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face of a lot of increasingly [...]
The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death. What that meant in the context of globally synchronized growth, 2017’s repeatedly dominant narrative, wasn’t the end [...]
Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will include any information gleaned from the comprehensive 2017 Economic Census. I haven’t closely [...]
Back in October, late October specifically, the Bank of Canada removed the word “gradual” from its policy statement. Inflation, staff Economists projected, was moving up as was the Canadian economy. It was finally time to become more aggressive. Freed from that one word, BoC officials could opt for a “rate hike” at every meeting. It was widely expected in December [...]
It’s the most testable of all hypothesis, yet the one which no one wants to test. The central bank is central. All the textbooks say it. You’ve been taught to believe it from your first introduction to Economics and finance. Whatever happens, you aren’t supposed to fight the Fed. The US central bank unleashed powerful, novel liquidity programs, an ultra-loose [...]
Once you see the whole thing, you can’t unsee it. But therein lies the problem. It is so far out there away from mainstream convention getting anyone to recognize what their eyes are recording is an enormous task. Even when someone happens to uncover, for themselves, a significant piece it is often too unfamiliar to truly appreciate its significance. In [...]
Gold, in my worldview, can be a “heads I win, tails you lose” proposition. If it goes up, that’s fear. Nothing good. If it goes down, that’s collateral. In many ways, worse. Either way, it is only bad, right? Not always. There are times when rising gold signals inflation, more properly reflation perceptions. Determining which is which is the real [...]
A little less than three weeks ago, the overnight unsecured money market rate for Chinese renminbi (RMB), SHIBOR, had fallen sharply to 1.417%. This was among the lowest in history, though it has been happening more frequently since last summer. That sounds like a good thing, only the low rates don’t ever last. Instead, over the next eight market sessions [...]
If you haven't had a chance yet, head over to MacroVoices for my latest presentation with Erik Townsend. A rerun of our Harvard appearance, it's an overview of the major points from how we got here to really understanding and appreciated where is here. Here is the MacroVoices page. And the same on Youtube. Some depth and details behind the [...]
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