Last month’s retail sales report for May was taken as the definitive sign that the slump had passed and that the conventional view of the jobs market was finally, if surprisingly belatedly, taking shape. It did not matter to economists that the only basis for that interpretation was seasonal adjustments, which had produced a huge disparity with the unadjusted set. [...]
The US Treasury Dept. released its awaited report on October 15 today. I started to read through its 72 pages but it became clear rather quickly this wasn’t anything but, frankly, junk. The ultimate message is simply one of “computers.” In other words, there is no discussion, apart from simple bland references here and there, about what really transpired on [...]
Last week, the CBO updated some of its calculations and methods for estimating the effects of “automatic stabilizers” on the deficit. These are Keynesian concepts whereby the government increases spending or redistribution (redundant) without discretion as the economy falls into the downside of a cycle. For the CBO’s purposes, the agency measures automatic stabilizers not on their effects, intended effects [...]
There was a point last week - probably about midday Wednesday - when it seemed that the financial world was spinning out of control. China's Shanghai exchange was continuing its slow motion crash, down almost 6% overnight, Europe was getting hammered as Greece teetered, the NYSE suddenly stopped working, United/Continental Airlines was grounded due to computer glitches, the Wall Street [...]
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been trading within a range of 150 or so points, testing support at the 50-day moving average over 10 times, and testing support at the 200 twice. If it can’t hold the 2050 level, we might finally be looking at a breach of the 200-day MA, something that we haven't done [...]
7-12-15
Jeff Snider and I often speak of the balance sheet leverage effect in markets. In the modern system, computer models assess the risk of portfolios throughout the industry. One key input to any value at risk model is volatility. If the standard deviation of prices rises, the computer will tell the managers that there is a greater probability of losses [...]
With a lull in Greek information and general craziness, as well as China essentially shutting down its stock exchange (no longer much as far as exchange) “dollar” pressure has abated. That is obvious in the treasury market which has seen a retracement in yields without collateral calls, but also somewhat in the related commodities. Copper prices are back up to [...]
There should be no more “ifs”, no more caveats and qualifications. After trillions of printed illusions through four QE’s and now almost seven years of ZIRP, she still can’t say for certain whether the economy is actually performing. However, the fact that Janet Yellen won’t say so is all the evidence you need, as for surely by now, especially given [...]
May must have been the month of sevens. First, exports declined by 7% year-over-year, as did imports. Now the Commerce Department reports wholesale sales within the US fell by 6.8%, which is good enough in close rounding to be yet another seven percent contraction. In the case of wholesale sales, while those estimates are likely coincidence at all around -7%, [...]
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