The Agence France Trésor of the French government reported on May 7 that its bond auction of Obligations Assimilables du Trésor (OAT) across three maturities was lightly subscribed. That wasn’t their assessment, of course, as the government simply reports the figures and the credit market makes value judgments. The October 2023’s were bid-to-cover of only 1.58; the May 2025’s were [...]
There has been a lot made of the fact that European GDP wasn’t worse in Q4, especially as Germany rallied to the continent’s economic defense. While initially the reactions were unabashedly positive, I think reality set in more so later after fuller digestion. In other words, everything we thought about Europe before today is still a problem, only that Germany [...]
Back at the end of August, it was becoming clear that there was a growing sense of maybe not distrust but far less blind faith emanating from credit markets all over the world. Without a single epicenter it has been far more difficult to simply side step all economic permutations as singularly important, rather the culmination of increasing worry is [...]
With Europe reporting GDP, reactions have been somewhat varied. In some places, it was taken as not as bad as feared, while others were downright cheered by a lack of total collapse, as if that is now the standard for economic progress. Since GDP tends to be noisy in the short run, the major components, the economic base, continues to [...]
What should most troubling to investors of all stripes and locales is that what is going on in Europe is almost exactly the same as what is taking place in Japan. Despite nearly all outward appearances, Japan and Europe have far more in common than differences, at least where it counts. The Japanese have finally created the monster they sought, [...]
It may have been something like two years, maybe closer to eighteen months, but it seems just like yesterday that Europe had left its deficient construct in the past. It was a daily ritual back then, exercising due diligence often through nothing more than checking just how negative bond rates would spring. There were German bunds and even indications of [...]
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