The benchmark revisions (trend-cycle) to durable goods left us with a smaller estimated economy but that wasn’t supposed to be a problem because all that matters supposedly is what comes next. In other words, the cycle was already deficient so the scale of that deficiency was not meant to suggest anything about the next phase, according to economic projections. If [...]
Durable goods orders and now shipments continue to be a serious drag on the overall economy. On a year-over-year basis, shipments joined orders in contracting for both durable goods (ex transportation) and capital goods. For some, there was a glimpse of hope in that the seasonally-adjusted category of new orders for capital goods rose in May, but that was, as [...]
Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month in April, meaning with January’s flat reading that new orders for this important segment of consumer “demand” has been consistently shrinking in all of 2015 so far. New orders for capital goods have been negative year-over-year in all four months. With the pace of shipments just now starting to decelerate, it [...]
There were a lot of references to the top-line durable goods figure, which was better at 4% in March, but surprisingly almost every piece of commentary was acquiescent to the very disappointing internals. If there was weather depression in the Q1 “slump” so far, it should have abated in March and kicked off an unmistakable rebound –that was the expectation. [...]
I think we are getting an even better sense of what might be the most ironclad law of orthodox economics. It seems as if there is a nonlinear proportionality between the desperation in which the mainstream denies it and the farther away from recovery the economy becomes. Last year was full of denial, especially as it related to that “anomaly” [...]
So far the economic retrenchment has persisted into February, outlasting any significant January weather. The latest worrisome figures came in the form of durable goods and especially capital goods. The former is another peg in the consumption side while the latter is one of the few glimpses of wealth creation (if far from a complete one). Both sides, demand and [...]
Yesterday in trying describe Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress about the economy, pundits apparently were forced to concede that the “data won’t cooperate”, thus leaving the economy in Yellen’s head to be wholly different than anything described elsewhere outside the media echoes. Today’s release of durable goods provides yet another data point that “will not cooperate” with the dreamland of [...]
There may be something to December after all. It was credit markets that shifted downward (bearish yield curves and credit spreads) dramatically around the end of November and the first few days of December. Given the persistence of large players moving credit and funding markets, this may not be all that hard to fathom with the close proximity of credit [...]
The “other” part to the GDP euphoria of the tax-like increase in non-discretionary spending was the apparent increase in business optimism. The latest durable goods figures, which includes capital goods, show that like the PCE revisions for health insurance spending there were relative changes that may account for better “investment” results in Q3. However, October and November more than suggest [...]
The unfortunately established narrative for all economic accounts in 2014 relates (still) to depressing winter earlier in the year and “better” from there. At first glance, the latest figures on durable goods seem to be following that idea, though a “rough patch” has perhaps developed over the past two months. A wider context, however, is really needed as the pattern [...]
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