In August 2013, the Treasury Department through its Treasury International Capital data (TIC) put a scale on that summer’s disruption. With a two month delay, the TIC figures gave us some insight as to why the fixed income/MBS selloff that summer was so violent; and further why it had so easily spread to currency markets. The destabilization of that event [...]
On July 2, 2015, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) traded to a stout closing yield of 0.511%. That was up significantly, in Japanese financial terms, from the start to the year where the benchmark bond yield had tumbled to as low as 0.206% supposedly in the aftermath of QQE expansion. The Bank of Japan had added to its already-disgusting [...]
It makes for yet another huge dichotomy, but one which is curiously absent from any mainstream commentary. As noted earlier today, Chinese imports were pleasantly surprising for the mainstream as they were just about flat year-over-year. The fact that oil imports surged by nearly 40% seemed only to confirm that whatever might be happening on the export side (another dichotomy [...]
Chinese imports fell for the 19th consecutive month in May, but it was the pace of the latest decline that has stirred (yet again) so much optimism. Year-over-year, Chinese imports were down just 0.4%, beating expectations for a 6% drop. From that, as you can guess, the media is awash in commentary that “stimulus” is working, meaning the recovery is [...]
To the surprise of no one, the Chinese yuan on Monday picked back up where it left off last week with Friday’s big move only shifting the level from which it now sinks. Straight from the Asian open, CNY quickly traded lower and settled again closer to 6.57. If it exposes Friday’s reversal as a one-day, knee-jerk reaction then it [...]
By any reasonable standard, today’s trading in “dollars” was highly unusual. The Chinese yuan had been trading its typical depreciation route all through the night and toward the US open. At about 6:15am, CNY was just about to touch 6.59 and a new low that would have put it back into early January territory (not good). It traded modestly higher [...]
China’s official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.1 in May. As such, the media doesn’t know what to make of it. It’s slightly less than the 50.2 “rebound” in March, but still more than the drastic low of 49 in February. Because the index value is above 50, commentary is generally of cautious optimism. We have seen this before, several [...]
The Chinese exchange rate has traded lower for five consecutive days, and aside from essentially no change last Friday would have been eight in a row. That contrasts with the downward pattern that existed ever since the turn in mid-April where only the general direction was down in not so much a straight line. The slope isn’t dramatic, but it [...]
The Ricardian theory of free trade has dominated economics philosophy for good reason. It has a sound basis in common sense and offers a theoretical guide to understand the nature of exchange from a systemic standpoint. It does not, however, cover all such basis for all such manner of trade. Comparative advantage is somewhat straightforward where nations exchange goods, but [...]
With stocks falling today continuing somewhat yesterday’s post-FOMC selloff there was going to be universal citation of monetary policy; or at least these new expectations of monetary policy coming supposedly for June. The dominant narrative remains in favor of Fed power where stocks don’t do well without it. So as the central bank removes so very slowly its “accommodation” we [...]
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