consumer prices

Powell’s Hawk Loses Its Lift Even Before Oil

By |2018-12-03T12:54:42-05:00December 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is the media data dependent? Depends, of course, on what you mean by “dependent.” One year ago, as December 2017 dawned, you couldn’t go a day even a few hours without some mainstream outlet publishing an ode to the LABOR SHORTAGE!!! A full part of the hysteria of the time, the idea of globally synchronized growth last year was started [...]

Live By The Oil Price…

By |2018-11-14T12:07:06-05:00November 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was like a scene out of the seventies. Americans lined in their cars all over the Southeast hoping that their local filling station would have gasoline. There were documented reports of shortages as far away as the Dakotas. This wasn’t typical behavior, fortunately, so it couldn’t have been too much like the oil embargo era. Instead, in early September [...]

Raining On Chinese Prices

By |2018-10-16T16:36:51-04:00October 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was for a time a somewhat curious dilemma. When it rains it pours, they always say, and for China toward the end of 2015 it was a real cloudburst. The Chinese economy was slowing, dangerous deflation developing around an economy captured by an unseen anchor intent on causing havoc and destruction. At the same time, consumer prices were jumping [...]

The Risks of Expectations

By |2018-10-15T16:18:29-04:00October 15th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What do consumers know that Economists don’t? It’s a loaded question, of course, particularly in this day and age where Economists spend years perfecting the study of mathematics. In many ways, formal training is an impediment to analysis of the economy. There’s nothing wrong with learning about regressions, but it can and often does appear to take away from intuitive [...]

Not Stealth Taper, Scared Taper

By |2018-09-21T15:49:14-04:00September 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Just like Jay Powell is surely hoping for some help from Mother Nature, the central bankers at the BoJ have to be wishing for more on their side of the Pacific. The US Federal Reserve will be looking for a repeat of last year’s Harvey and Irma effects out of Florence. It looks like they’ll need them. Japanese officials have [...]

A Long Dollar Story: China’s Short Profits, Prices, and Producers

By |2018-09-10T16:59:18-04:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first half of the Great “Recession”, China and the rest of the EM world seemed immune. It was American subprime mortgages that we were told was causing all the problems, and if European banks had somehow gotten themselves entangled in the rotten real estate mess so much the better for where growth was invulnerable. This first instance of [...]

ECB At A (Familiar) Crossroads

By |2018-08-31T17:05:54-04:00August 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to concede there had been at [...]

The Anticipation For The 2011 Inflation Case

By |2018-08-30T18:19:07-04:00August 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PCE Deflator rose 2.31% year-over-year in July 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That makes five in a row for Jay Powell to try to make his case. Prior to March, the central bank had missed its target for the PCE Deflator in 68 out of 70 months using the 2012 dollar reference. Has something changed? Yes [...]

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

By |2018-08-13T18:15:42-04:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%. That was the highest since [...]

They Changed Inflation, At Least

By |2018-07-31T16:17:19-04:00July 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the switch to the 2012 reference, the new fixed dollar comparison makes revisions in the PCE Deflator a bit springier. Lows are a little lower; highs a little higher. At the bottom in 2009 (July), for example, the 2009 reference says consumer price inflation was -1.18%. This new 2012 reference says it was -1.24%. For June 2009, the difference [...]

Go to Top