The estimates for wholesale sales and inventory complete the devastation of January’s economic landscape. Overall sales fell by the largest amount, nearly 4%, since the bottom of the Great Recession. Inventories, however, continue to build despite the slowing sales, leaving the inventory-to-sales ratio far above either the most recent “cycle” peak or even the last one. The greatest part of [...]
There were several updates in the crude oil data flow, including the latest “unexpectedly” huge increase in inventory that pushed spot WTI back below $50 yet again. The US EIA estimated that domestic inventory rose by a gargantuan 10.3 million barrels, far exceeding predicted builds. That figure has to include oil being shipped to the US to be stored in [...]
The Great Recession was seven years ago so it might seem appropriate that our memories of the specific nature and order of events is lost to time. However, given that it will be a seminal event in history (hopefully not surpassed) there is less leeway to having such a short grasp on the important pieces. Part of that relates to [...]
The price of WTI index crude has fallen back below $50 again as inventories rise far more than expected. That has been the theme of late despite the recent retracement in crude. However, looking at WTI via the futures curve, trading habits are increasingly locking in the outer years (especially past 2016) around $65 - $70 per barrel. That is [...]
The amount of inconsistency is certainly consistent when viewing the trouble mainstream analysis has with trying to exclude the possibility of economic forces from explaining why things are the way they are. The latest trade data from China was deafening, too much to pass off as a simple case of a minor blip. Exports in January declined rather sharply, “unexpectedly” [...]
When the FOMC came out and said the economy was good enough for them to begin raising interest rates, the eurodollar funding market did the opposite of what would be expected of that situation. Not only did the market move in the “wrong” direction, it did so with a great deal of conviction. Today’s jobs report moved the eurodollar market [...]
Looking through all the various indications of the “dollar” world, there is seemingly to this moment a great deal of calm. This is in sharp contrast to December where bearishness and tightening were not just evident but dangerously so (across almost every part of the global financial system). But those two observations are not necessarily expected in sequence, as typically [...]
In addition, and very much related, to durable and capital goods disappointment, some major bellwether earnings have weighed on jubilation over the “robust” economy. Caterpillar in particular was troubling, but as the lineup of excuses expands, the idea of “decoupling” is now even more pronounced. So, in addition to the energy sector dragging down earnings, overseas results will also add [...]
On the day the ECB intends to conjure more “inflation” out of monetary misdirection and an air of positivity (bred of now-admitted negativity), the lack of usage in the energy space continues to make the endeavor that much more daunting. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.1 million barrels from the previous [...]
I mentioned yesterday in looking at the behavior of gold that it seems as if the “dollar” has entered a bit of a pause in its wider destructive reality of late. Maybe that coincidence with the SNB’s dramatic alteration offers an explanation for it, with renewed focus on the European end of eurdollars, or that these are merely complimentary of [...]
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