demand

The Kingdom Offers Less Oil

By |2015-11-25T16:33:51-05:00November 25th, 2015|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the media remains fixed on supply, the rest of the financial complex is prepared elsewhere. On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced what the mainstream has been waiting for (and often blatantly demanding) since the summer “rebound” faded into August liquidations. Given the mythical status of Saudi supply, this was the one country thought to be the only possible savior. Crude [...]

‘Dollar’ View of Demand

By |2015-11-24T17:45:16-05:00November 24th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If China is struggling with the various facets of the interconnected nature of eurodollar function, then we don’t have to go far to see that in almost perfect clarity. By many accounts, funding and liquidity remain highly disturbed and becoming more uniformly so. From gold to francs to copper to junk debt, pricing reflects more so a combined economic and [...]

The Common Economy of 2015

By |2015-11-13T11:11:26-05:00November 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With financial markets sharply glued to the “dollar’s” renewed mischief, that means everything lies at the feet of the global economy. The US economy is supposed to be the one colorful and lively example in that otherwise souring picture, even if it has been temporarily pushed from ideal. In fact, despite all that has happened this year, and “unexpectedly” continues [...]

The Real Flows of China

By |2015-11-09T13:03:53-05:00November 9th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unrelenting economic decline in China is finally getting the attention of economists and the media as something more than a big problem “for them.” Imports declined by 18.8% in October after having contracted by 20.5% in August. On the export side, Chinese goods sent abroad fell 6.9% year-over-year in dollars which confirms that the contraction is not China’s alone [...]

Partly

By |2015-10-29T13:57:14-04:00October 29th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Written Wednesday Oct 28 There is much less to an FOMC statement than the FOMC minutes, all far less than the actual meeting transcripts. That is why the statement is available immediately, the minutes within a month , but you will wait more than 5 years for the actual discussion. In the case of this “recovery”, that delay worked to [...]

Dollar And The Cloud

By |2015-10-20T12:35:25-04:00October 20th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

IBM reported yesterday yet another disastrous quarter. Revenues declined by nearly 14%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of at least -12% revenue. That level and accumulation of shrinking has already surpassed the worst of the Great Recession for the company. That comparison holds whether you exclude currency or not, as currency “effects” in 2009 were just as strong and depressive. [...]

US And Global Economy Sync

By |2015-10-06T16:26:33-04:00October 6th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau updated US trade activity for August, with export activity dropping almost 11% year-over-year. The global economy is clearly falling apart, no matter how much economists wish to see the dollar (exchange rate fluctuations) where the “dollar” (wholesale finance pulling back leading to economic disarray) already is. Export activity is only a little short of the trough of [...]

The Slippery Slope of Denial

By |2015-10-01T12:24:49-04:00October 1st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The ISM Manufacturing PMI was “unexpectedly” weak yet again in September. Continuing the theme spelled out by the regional manufacturing surveys (the Fed’s and the Chicago BBI), economic momentum has clearly stalled right where the “dollar” said it would. The pattern is blindingly obvious, with a huge slowdown to start the year (coincident to the first “dollar” disruptions including crude [...]

Downgrading Manufacturing

By |2015-09-30T14:44:26-04:00September 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The last few pieces of data for Q3 more than suggest the US economy faltered in August/September. That trend would be alarming on its own had it occurred in a financial vacuum (as if ceteris paribus actually existed), but following along against the “dollar” is especially so. There was the initial, large decline in early 2015 that “unexpectedly” shocked economists [...]

‘Dollar’ As Demand + Inventory As Oversupply = Nothing Good Next

By |2015-08-17T15:56:37-04:00August 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week, industrial production ticked higher but only somewhat while this week the Empire Fed manufacturing survey has caused extensive jitters to extend at least another week. Given those somewhat contrasting views on American industry they can be reconciled by simple timing matched against what the “dollar” has been doing across that period. Oil prices, that vital connection between “dollar” [...]

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