dollar short

The FOMC Should Probably Cry For Argentina

By |2018-05-02T17:30:52-04:00May 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Argentina was perhaps the biggest success story of “reflation.” Left for dead in global markets as the hammer of the “rising dollar” pounded down on everyone, the country elected new leadership and began taking the right steps toward modern economic integration. That’s the story, anyway. What really happened was a bit different. The country that had been funding itself at [...]

Globally Synchronized Disappointment

By |2018-05-01T19:16:52-04:00May 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like so many financial prices, copper’s is tied to both money and economic fundamentals. They call it Dr. Copper for a reason, good as it has been in suggesting ahead of time the direction for the global economy. China is as central for the setting there as well as in “dollars.” During the early days of the “rising dollar” I [...]

Is It Over?

By |2018-05-01T17:10:13-04:00May 1st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the time and a constant part of analysis, trying to identify and separate what is truly contained. The global eurodollar monetary system grew so far and so fast in [...]

Globally Synchronized Bond Vigilantes

By |2018-04-30T17:25:12-04:00April 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One equal part of inflation hysteria had been that as the US economy recovers and growth accelerates, foreign buyers would flee US Treasuries. The bond market would be hit with a double damning of higher inflation and and substantially reduced overseas purchases. Under such pressure, no way could yields hold under 3% for very long. To often make the case, [...]

The (Official) World Moves A Little Closer To The Eurodollar

By |2018-04-23T19:01:59-04:00April 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary reason I focus so much on time is that I believe it is running out. No one possesses a crystal ball, least of all me, and while making such a statement might presume to be intensely negative (doom and gloom) it’s not always that way and it certainly doesn’t have to be. For all the innumerable frustrations, there [...]

Renewed ‘Reflation’ From A Short-term Dollar Perspective

By |2018-04-20T19:28:26-04:00April 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s worth revisiting the topic of the “rising dollar.” What determines its exchange value in the first place? Orthodox convention associates the general direction up or down with interest rate differentials, the infamous global carry trade. Not just any interest rate comps, either, but those of short-term money markets. Thus, if the Federal Reserve is “raising rates” as it has [...]

Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way

By |2018-04-18T18:17:59-04:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve been waiting for the TIC [...]

Hong Kong, China, And The Nightmare of Forex Piles

By |2018-04-13T19:35:35-04:00April 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Very early on in the turn, I mean very early, you could already tell there were substantial problems underneath. By the time CNY started lower, against all expectations, there had already been serious signs of trouble in China for months by then. In that initial seemingly minor drop in early 2014, the PBOC’s actions belied a stable system. If you knew [...]

The ‘Dollar’ Devil Shows Itself Again In China

By |2017-06-13T19:35:09-04:00June 13th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some economic and financial conditions leave a yield curve as a more complex affair. Then there are others that are incredibly simple. The UST yield curve is the former, while right now the Chinese Treasury curve is the latter. Even still, the media manages to make it something it isn’t because the world from its perspective is surely improving, and [...]

Disturbed in Japan

By |2016-05-10T11:04:27-04:00May 10th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japanese officials including those at the Bank of Japan have been acting very erratic of late, eschewing the more traditional financial setting of vagueness. First it was NIRP that immediately blew up in their face, leading to very loud rumors of additional bank “stimulus” to offset NIRP only to have the BoJ instead do nothing at its last policy meeting. [...]

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