The taper-folks at the FOMC might be somewhat indifferent to the latest employment report. While the headline bean-count of the number of jobs looked decent enough (for the lowered standards of this age), the stubbornness of the “official” unemployment rate will counter that. The problem of the labor force participation and what actually constitutes the labor force was fully evident [...]
The idea of recession in the context of a “recovery” is somewhat maddening from a conventional standpoint. A recovering economy is not supposed to be subject to a reversal, particularly in the presence of so much “stimulus”. However, there is precedent for just this sort of pattern, including Europe right now. In our own experience, the 1930’s offered exactly this [...]
Following up on this morning’s analysis of structural changes in the automobile markets globally, we see the same structural observations in the labor markets. If there does exist a strong relationship between household income and auto demand, and it is pretty clear that one does, what we find in employment trends is unsurprising. The latest jobs report, including revisions to [...]
Economies either grow or they shrink, though shrinking is a misplaced word here. A real economic system is always moving forward, even during recession and dislocation. The word dislocation is used in modern economics where it probably does not belong, as well. The entire idea of a dislocation is antithetical to a real economy, being an abnormal separation (emphasis on [...]
The headline employment growth for May 1974 totaled 165,000 jobs. That followed a weaker report from April where only 89,000 new jobs were created. Only a few months before, the headline beancount of job quantity was 304,000. For the seven months between November 1973 and May 1974, the headline averaged +135,000. That was notable because the entire period fell within [...]
Japan last week announced a radical plan to finally slay the deflation dragon that has stalked their economy for the last 25 years. The sheer magnitude of the BOJ's program should put to rest once and for all whether monetary policy can truly work as the growth tonic that policy wonks such as Ben Bernanke fervently hope. The BOJ will [...]
Headline employment figures had been displaying a far better indication of the labor market than most of the internal, non-adjusted numbers for January and February. Unfortunately, in March the headline finally converged with disappointing internals rather than the other way around. In the Establishment Survey, the headline increase of 88k was far below expectations, and even below the lowest estimate. [...]
Again, better than expected data buoys markets as the tepid recovery appears not to be worse than tepid. Today the Department of Labor reported a drop in initial jobless claims that seems to confirm the employment or jobs headline from last Friday. Low initial claims do tend to correlate with rising employment levels, so it is appears to be plausible [...]
The employment report, as it always does, captured the most attention, but it was the wholesale inventory/sales report that deserved the widest audience. There will be plenty to say about the real employment situation currently (I will have a subsequent post devoted to earned income and job bean counting), but any discussion of jobs has to start with a broader [...]
Headline employment continues to look tepid, but at least moving in the right direction. However, that does not square with the GDP report from earlier this week. The headline Establishment survey average of the past few months appears inconsistent with such GDP weakness. Economists have been quick to point to the BLS employment numbers as confirmation that GDP is not [...]
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