In June 2015, Japan’s Cabinet Office, the section of the government charged with tabulating and publishing gross domestic product estimates, revised Q1 2015 GDP significantly higher to 3.9% from its preliminary 2.7% figure. Not only was that the second straight quarter of positive growth, the acceleration indicated seemed to confirm that the Japanese economy had finally shaken off the effects [...]
On June 6, Janet Yellen spoke to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia in what were highly scrutinized comments. The occasion was just a weekend in between the May payroll report that clearly unnerved her and the rest of the FOMC. Prior to that BLS publication, it was believed that a rate hike in June was all but set. Afterward, [...]
The Federal Reserve carefully notes that its Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is subject to revisions in as much as its entire history almost every month. That is the nature of the project trying to tie together 19 separate data points into a coherent yet comprehensive whole. Part of the inherent recurrence of revisions, however, is simply the pace of [...]
Given it is payroll Friday, it has to be a chart related to the futility of focusing on the headline number. There is any number of ways with which to accomplish this, but it serves well to highlight the relationship already presented in my view of this specific view of the payroll report. Economists often claim that the participation problem [...]
The BLS released yet another perfect payroll report for July. It hit on all the major themes, putting further distance to the shocking May number. All the right people have been reassured by all the right parts. U.S. employment rose at a solid clip in July and wages rebounded after a surprise stall in the prior month, signs of an [...]
Construction spending had been increasing steadily since the start of 2011. Factoring both the size of the decline due to the housing bust and the timing of the turnaround in sales and prices, the mere fact that construction activity had been recovering was not really economically significant. As with most economic sectors, positive growth even to a substantial degree did [...]
The news Friday that 2nd quarter GDP expanded by a tepid 1.2% from the previous quarter (annualized) marks a change that needs to acknowledged. The last two years we have seen a pattern of a weak first quarter - for which economists have been searching frantically for an explanation - followed by a second and third quarter rebound. Fourth quarters [...]
In advance of today’s GDP release, it was expected that the Q2 estimate would be around 2.6% (it was only 1.2%). The major reason for the anticipated rebound was “strong” consumers, a theme that has been a part of the dominant economic narrative since 2014 introduced the phantom “best jobs market in decades.” No matter what happens in the economy, [...]
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP came in lower than expected. At just 1.211%, the anticipated rebound from the dreadful winter failed to materialize in any significant way. Worse, benchmark revisions now suggest that GDP has been around 1% for three straight quarters; Q4 2015 was revised down from 1.377% to just 0.869%; Q1 2016 was revised back 0.831%. [...]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate for Q2 2016 GDP tomorrow, along with benchmark revisions that may render this entire discussion moot. By all expectations, GDP is believed to have rebounded from Q1’s 1.07% predicated on little more than that April through June was not nearly as bad as January through March. In fact, as [...]
Stay In Touch