No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day. Here's what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required). This report includes [...]
No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day. Here's what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required). This report includes [...]
QE. Quantitative Easing. The most misunderstood, misinterpreted, misconstrued, mis-overestimated economic policy of the current monetary era. No need for qualifiers or weasel words like “perhaps” or “maybe”. In an age of unprecedented policies – largely ineffective, I might add – in an ocean of official misdirection, quantitative easing stands out as the grandest deception of them all. With the onset [...]
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was felt far and wide, in places with no connection at all to the US mortgage market. That is, or should be, a clue that the crisis wasn’t really about sub-prime mortgages at all. There were places, though, that avoided much of the turmoil. One of the oddest and unexpected might be Argentina, a [...]
When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn't waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I've related in these missives before, he called those things "well-worried". His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth [...]
Jeffrey Snider's Follow The Money Series: Money Market Turmoil On Monday, September 16, funding markets came under significant pressure. In repo, the GC rate (UST) jumped to 2.876% from 2.288% the Friday before. Repo rates and other money rates like federal funds had been elevated already but this 60-basis point move was highly unusual. Our Special Report on the Money [...]
The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other indicators are really saying about the current [...]
This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by [...]
Our very own Joe Calhoun, founder and CEO of Alhambra Investments, was invited to feature on Hedgeye's 20th episode of In the Arena. He joins Hedgeye's Daryl Jones in a lively discussion on the current investing landscape and hurdles facing the U.S. economy:
The yield curve's inverted! The yield curve's inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That's the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good. And [...]
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