Alhambra Research

Regime Change

By |2020-03-23T08:06:50-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Special Reports, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were still down on the week as corporate and municipal bonds continued to get [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

By |2020-01-31T12:38:07-05:00January 31st, 2020|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Note: We first posted this research paper in August 2019, when the yield curve inverted for the first time in the current economic cycle. Well, it inverted once again yesterday, so... Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: Minding The Valuation Gap

By |2020-01-27T18:12:33-05:00January 27th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

Stocks are expensive. Really expensive. A wide gap has opened between the stock market and economic reality, and at some point, the gap between the two will close. Our Special Report on Market Valuations, Volume 4 in Jeff Snider's "Follow The Money" series, will help you detail how it might look when it inevitably closes, and will counsel you on how [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

By |2020-01-08T09:48:34-05:00January 8th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here's what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).   This report includes [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

By |2020-01-02T15:37:16-05:00January 2nd, 2020|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here's what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).   This report includes [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: Don’t Fight The Fed?

By |2019-12-11T08:49:41-05:00December 11th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

QE. Quantitative Easing. The most misunderstood, misinterpreted, misconstrued, mis-overestimated economic policy of the current monetary era. No need for qualifiers or weasel words like “perhaps” or “maybe”. In an age of unprecedented policies – largely ineffective, I might add – in an ocean of official misdirection, quantitative easing stands out as the grandest deception of them all. With the onset [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: It Was The Eurodollars All Along

By |2019-12-06T10:42:03-05:00November 13th, 2019|Special Reports|

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was felt far and wide, in places with no connection at all to the US mortgage market. That is, or should be, a clue that the crisis wasn’t really about sub-prime mortgages at all. There were places, though, that avoided much of the turmoil. One of the oddest and unexpected might be Argentina, a [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

By |2019-10-23T15:08:21-04:00October 10th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Markets|

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn't waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I've related in these missives before, he called those things "well-worried". His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: Money Market Turmoil

By |2019-12-06T10:39:00-05:00October 8th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Special Reports|

Jeffrey Snider's Follow The Money Series: Money Market Turmoil On Monday, September 16, funding markets came under significant pressure. In repo, the GC rate (UST) jumped to 2.876% from 2.288% the Friday before. Repo rates and other money rates like federal funds had been elevated already but this 60-basis point move was highly unusual. Our Special Report on the Money [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

By |2019-12-06T10:39:07-05:00September 13th, 2019|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Financial Planning, Markets, Special Reports|

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other indicators are really saying about the current [...]