In March 2009, only two days after the exact bottom in US stocks, Alan Greenspan took the pages of the Wall Street Journal to declare, declaratively, that the Fed was not to blame for the catastrophe. His “evidence” was based on this single supposition: The second, and far more credible, explanation [for the housing bubble] agrees that it was indeed [...]
I suppose this was not really a surprise given how the Japanese people seem to have simply accepted their fate, economically speaking, so the resounding re-election of Abe’s party removes any further sympathy from a people dooming themselves to this sustained, toxic course. The election itself was not all about the economy in immediate consideration as there were several other [...]
After months of hearing about how the fracking “miracle” is totally, fully and comprehensively responsible for the drop in oil prices there is finally penetrating reality. After the continued disruption in the Chinese economy as well as the close onset of recession in Europe, plus full-blown recession in Japan and Brazil, all that is left is really the diminutive hope [...]
The October trade deficit for Japan turned out to be the “best” month since June 2013. While commentary has been quick and sharp about an export-led recovery path, actual analysis of what is taking place would lead to the opposite conclusion. This is revealed by simple geography. A full part of the problem starts with context, in that a ¥710 [...]
There was not much good news from China last night, particularly as there were no PMI releases to allow the media and economists to project uncorrelated optimism. Everything from industrial production to retail sales came in under “estimates”, with industrial production in October particularly worrisome as the second worst month (only better than August) since 2008 and the depths of [...]
Given the attention to oil prices lately, it sure seems as if the media is determined to make a case for supply causation rather than anything of demand that might harm the established recovery narrative. In almost every major financial outlet, and more than a few “mainstream” “news” centers, there is a uniform tale of how lower oil prices are [...]
Despite all domestic reports to the contrary, the rest of the world is having a very difficult time seeing any recovery yet in the United States economy. With recent trade data in hand, it is not difficult to discern why oil prices are heading so much lower and the Chinese (and then Brazil and every other resource economy) are left [...]
Most of what accounts for GDP is nothing but noise, leaving only a few major indications about what the economy is doing (or not doing). Prior to 2008, that wasn’t much of a problem as GDP by and large seemed to correlate well with other estimations of economic progress, and even our own intuitive perceptions. If you go back historically, [...]
The chatter that continues over Japan’s spiral into (further) economic impoverishment is simply astounding since it is taken as “expert” by the media. A credentialed economist will look at some numbers and simply take them as meaningful, especially if they are the “right” sign in the “right” direction. This is either wholly obtuse or intentionally misleading. Stronger exports would support [...]
First, the China Manufacturing “Flash” PMI had “markets” exhaling relief since an increase from 50.2 to 50.5 meant, Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns. A week later, however, that PMI increase disappeared as the final PMI for September came in at an even 50.2 instead – which altered the commentary from “rising” manufacturing to “thankfully” steady manufacturing. So both rising and [...]
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