inflation expectations

Schaetze To That

By |2020-02-24T19:19:55-05:00February 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil. The non-standard [...]

The Real Labor Market

By |2020-02-11T17:11:34-05:00February 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As you might imagine, inflation was the hot topic of conversation during the December 2014 FOMC meeting. Having opened up the transcripts for that year to the public last month, we are once more treated to the background behind this theater of the absurd. The final few months of 2014 were when everything came together. For these central bankers, it [...]

One Part Of The Bond Market Seems To Be Cooperating, But Not The Other

By |2020-01-03T18:28:12-05:00January 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world tries to digest the latest in geopolitics, as well as guess what could come next with them, on the topic of the economy the TIPS market registered a notable high yesterday. The 5-year breakeven rate, the difference between the “real” yield on the 5-year TIPS and the nominal yield for the 5-year US Treasury Note, was pulled [...]

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