There have been, in the past year, two great inflections in wholesale finance. The first was in late June as the “dollar” began to rise, thus signaling a massive shift in balance sheet mechanics, the modern “money supply” that so confuses economists. That is why they at first enthusiastically embraced the “strong dollar” as that anachronistic interpretation seemed on the [...]
There was a reason FDR’s administration in its first 100 days took the order it did. Contrary to some assertions, Executive Order 6102 was not a lawless expansion of executive privilege and prerogative. It had a very lawful basis, underwritten by the Emergency Banking Act of 1933 which itself was based on (and no part of this fact should be [...]
The perfect payroll report seems to have set off an angry wholesale market. While there was some indication of disorder prior to today, eurodollars in particular were sold once the Establishment Survey made it even more uncomfortable for Yellen’s position. Whereas the eurodollar curve had been unusually stable throughout May, it has been a different story in June. Economy or [...]
Part 1 is here, Orderly or Not (short version: not). Also noted yesterday, the Fed sees no risks of bubble trouble because they are looking at it all from the 2008 perspective. That is completely wrong-headed; if there is a “next one” it will have nothing to do with subprime mortgages, or even mortgages and real estate. By March 2007, [...]
I generally remain noncommittal about giving specific predictions about the future because there is simply no way toward predilection. We can think about probabilities as a guide for analysis, particularly in setting investment guidelines, but to offer targets for factors like GDP or some stock index is pointless. Even now, with all that is taking place of economic unraveling, there [...]
You may have heard recently about the Transportation Safety Administration’s record for safety measures in airline transportation. The task with which the government agency is charged has become a bit of a joke, with public perception almost of a gang of thieves running a sanctioned-criminal enterprise. The groping and stealing are held back, with apathy and inertia on its side, [...]
The main thing about “tail events” is how unconventional they can be, a tautology that somehow is necessary. When taking account of financial risks in 2015 it is almost convention that there are bubbles, with rather unnerving complacency about it all. That suggests in some ways the whole idea of bubbles has changed since the first one under eurodollars showed [...]
In its 84th Annual Report released last June, the Bank for International Settlements departed from usual central bankish conventions and decried the growing departure from market discipline and even reality. The BIS even used the loaded term “euphoric” to describe what it saw as risk market prices no longer affected by fundamental economic conditions. As the Financial Times noted then, [...]
Yesterday I looked at funding markets and currency proxies for detecting the end to the “dollar” pause that began on March 18. Broader credit markets agree with that assessment so far, as nominal yields and the UST curve shape have started, at least, to be redrawn back into the tightening format. Nominal yields and inflation breakevens turned right at May [...]
Nobody really knows what is going to happen as Greece disproves all the narratives about the ECB’s ability to actually fix anything. As with all things monetarism, the attempts of liquidity were really about time rather than dissuading imbalances. But the funny thing about trying to buy time is that it so often removes the very pressure necessary to instill [...]
Stay In Touch