There seems to be perhaps more than a little too much notice about Friday’s jobs report finally regaining the prior peak. In some places, largely political in nature, it has been cause for celebration as if it is some reckoning akin to an actual recovery. That might be true in a vacuum, but compounding in economics is more than just [...]
I often stand in amazement at what passes for conventional wisdom, or more precisely what is being attempted as such. Only one year ago the tendency to view the housing market as the next great growth engine was ubiquitous all across economic commentary. It had “clearly” and “unarguably” turned from a maddening headwind to a comforting tailwind. More than a [...]
It is only one word, but it has been repeated so many times by FOMC members in the past year or so it has taken on the imprimatur of officialdom vernacular. Whenever speaking of bubbles, these policymakers inevitably include the word, “obvious.” Long is the list of internal literature that purports to place bubbles in the same category with the [...]
McDonald’s latest results confirm that something is very much amiss on the consumer side. Total global revenue grew only 1% Y/Y, including new store launches and acquisitions. However, as has been the pattern since 2012, US comparable store sales lagged markedly. The rate of contraction in Q1 was actually the worst in more than a decade. Even if you believe [...]
The Wizard: I AM OZ...the Great and Powerful! Who are you? The Wizard: Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! The Great Oz has spoken! Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain? Scarecrow: I don't know. But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking, don't they? All lines from Frank Baum's [...]
Janet Yellen gave her first testimony to Congress as Chair of the Federal Reserve. You'll notice a distinct lack of gender in that title, one that Ms. Yellen apparently prefers, and I don't disagree a bit with her choice. The gender of the person entrusted with maintaining the integrity of our money is quite irrelevant. After listening to the views [...]
As we enter the Janet Yellen age of Federal Reserve stewardship, I am perhaps most struck by the contrast with her predecessors. I certainly don’t mean that in reference to her sex, rather her career trajectory and professional history. Ben Bernanke, for example, while being a Princeton professor, had established a very distinguished record of scholarship, much of which was [...]
My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over. Ben Bernanke has joined the millions of Americans in the unemployment line that he worked so hard to lengthen. Over two terms as Chairman and almost three years as a Governor of the Federal Reserve - interrupted by a brief stint as head of President Bush's Council Of Economic Advisers (talk [...]
When you think of business investment, far more often than not the typical reaction is something like heavy equipment at an industrial firm. While that is certainly an important aspect of overall productive growth, with firms like General Electric representing the industrial investment, in this more service oriented economy it is computer and technology spending that represents business investment. As [...]
I suppose the key difference this January is that taper is a reality and not just some theoretical jawboning. But he we are again in January discussing FOMC ruminations about what might appear “slightly” concerning about asset prices and levels. As Janet Yellen takes over to focus the Fed’s considerable (in its models’ estimations) might in trying to “alleviate all [...]
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