As stocks selloff today, so too does the junk bubble. I think the implication traces back to the Asian “dollar” and the unsteady state of wholesale finance in that part of the eurodollar system (while contemplating the potential for mitosis to have occurred there at some point in the recent past, likely 2012). Junk prices not only remain depressed but [...]
Industrial production contracted again in August at a rate (month-over-month) similar to that in June. That would suggest the rebound in July was the aberration since IP has now declined in seven out of the eight months this year. The year-over-year growth rate of just 0.9% would have been the worst of the “recovery” except that downward revisions forced June’s [...]
After nearly coming in flat for June, wholesale sales fell almost 5% year-over-year in July. That is the second worst month of this “cycle”, bested only by May’s nearly 7% drop. The six-month average is now -3.2% which is uncomfortably close to the worst part of the dot-com recession which only averaged -4.0% at the low. Despite that sales environment, [...]
I don’t think Mario Draghi panicked, but China is as good a scapegoat as any at the moment. The ECB’s intended adjustment in the PSPP (QE) is cosmetic, but then again QE itself is pretty much only that to begin with. It seems pretty obvious given the desperate lack of any positive impact from it so far, and the very [...]
It’s amazing what will be ignored or forgotten in order to try to explain the state of the world when it strays so far beyond bounded conception. Commentary views the state of economic world as wholly separate dots, disparate systems only tangentially connected through nebulous trade terms and hard currencies. The world was once that way, though perhaps even then [...]
With a lull in Greek information and general craziness, as well as China essentially shutting down its stock exchange (no longer much as far as exchange) “dollar” pressure has abated. That is obvious in the treasury market which has seen a retracement in yields without collateral calls, but also somewhat in the related commodities. Copper prices are back up to [...]
There should be no more “ifs”, no more caveats and qualifications. After trillions of printed illusions through four QE’s and now almost seven years of ZIRP, she still can’t say for certain whether the economy is actually performing. However, the fact that Janet Yellen won’t say so is all the evidence you need, as for surely by now, especially given [...]
Volatility in UST trading declined a bit in the past few days, as treasury yields became far more settled intraday. While that breaks the exact duplication Monday and Tuesday this week traced from Monday and Tuesday last week, the past two weeks overall remain remarkably similar. And for all the noise, the ups and downs along the way, treasury yields [...]
Since hitting it most recent low in mid-March, spot WTI has rebounded about 40% reaching above $61/barrel at one point. The ultimate low, which brought the physical price down under $43, was on the morning of March 18. The FOMC statement later that afternoon has been taken as a removal of any close threat to ZIRP, taking enormous pressure off the [...]
With the “dollar” off the ledger as far as a menacing factor, perceptions have begun to shift toward different if still-confused rhetoric. Figuring out fixed income isn’t always straightforward to begin with, but as the “unexpected” flirtation with deflation over the past few months threw a huge wrench into the economic boom supposedly forming the world over, the temptation now [...]
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