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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

By |2020-08-12T16:45:11-04:00August 12th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on. To many dispassionate observers there was always this sort of improper religious fervor to it rather than [...]

Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

By |2020-08-11T15:26:12-04:00August 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to [...]

Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

By |2020-08-03T17:53:25-04:00August 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.These others when [...]

Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations

By |2020-07-28T17:33:47-04:00July 28th, 2020|Markets|

When people accuse the Federal Reserve of anything when it comes to inflation, they say the central bank is cooking the books to hide it. Back in 2000, for example, monetary observers were aflutter as policymakers shifted away from the CPI and to the PCE Deflator as their ultimate standard for broad consumer price behavior. The bastards, the latter widely [...]

Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up

By |2020-07-27T19:46:53-04:00July 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 3, 2015, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, supposedly disappointed markets especially those trading European equities. Losses were large because Mario Draghi’s gang of policymakers merely extended its first QE rather than accelerating the pace of purchases. Investors, such as they were, had been told to expect more than that. To make matters worse, according to the mainstream narrative, [...]

Wait A Minute, The Dollar And The Fed’s Bank Reserves Are Directly Not Inversely Related

By |2020-07-14T16:37:09-04:00July 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One small silver lining to the current situation, while Jay Powell is busily trying to sell you his inflation fantasy, he’s actually undermining it at the very same time. No mere challenge to his own “money printing” fiction, either, the Fed’s Chairman is actively disproving the entire enterprise. While he says what he says, pay close attention instead to what [...]

So Long As The Bucket Is Full of Holes, Treasury Demand Comes First

By |2020-07-13T16:40:50-04:00July 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Foreigners are dumping their Treasuries! The Fed is monetizing the debt! The federal government has gone insane! Mass fiscal hysteria!Yet, yields on these things are comfortably within sight of their record lows as prices have never been higher. Supply is very obviously off-the-charts, but so, too, must be demand. Every time we hear about “too many” Treasuries the market yet [...]

Europe Losing Momentum With Its Biggest Positives Ever

By |2020-07-08T19:55:30-04:00July 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Italy had been one of hardest hit countries, if not the worst for a good while. For months rather than weeks, life was shut down in an effort to get ahead of COVID-19 while it ravaged seemingly unchecked. It became a buzzword of sorts, the name of the nation synonymous with the pandemic itself. Don’t be Italy.As a result, the [...]

Yield Caps = Toddlers

By |2020-07-08T17:42:59-04:00July 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has cut its QE purchasing pace, and yet the US Treasury Department doesn’t seem hampered by a shortage of bidders for its record-setting note auctions. Far from “too many” Treasuries, prices are once more unequivocal how there aren’t enough. With or without Powell, the auction record is clear and, unlike those constantly talking up the BOND ROUT!!! [...]

Looking Ahead Through Japan

By |2020-06-29T18:06:14-04:00June 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, [...]

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