Government securities have become so scarce that it is driving down repo rates. A collateral shortage that has become so acute, money dealers won’t part with their stock of government securities no matter what the price. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Except, we’re talking about Japan and JGB’s here rather than UST’s. The trick is that both types [...]
If the Fed has promised to print an unlimited supply of money, then why are inflation expectations at crisis lows and falling? At the same time, there are still-growing signs of illiquidity and an interbank crackup. Bazooka after bazooka, yet they don’t seem to be having much effect. That’s true domestically but more so offshore. You may have seen references [...]
For several weeks now, the Federal Reserve has launched one bazooka after another. Officials there keep reassuring the markets, and the public, they’ve got an unlimited toolkit. However, the fact that they feel it necessary to keep showing you is a warning sign, especially how quickly each one is forgotten and overshadowed by the latest Big New Thing. The reason [...]
The Fed unveiled what was supposed to be shock and awe. Instead, it was the predictable series of upsizing the bazookas, monetary armaments in name only. I’ll write it again: there is no money in monetary policy. Central banks are not central. That was the primary lesson of September’s repo rumble, and not for the first time since August 9, [...]
Why is anyone surprised Christine Lagarde stepped in it? This is who she is, who she has been her entire career. The woman is a walking disaster, screwing up from one place only to be promoted into the next. Her Argentina debacle was merely the latest – before yesterday. In case you were distracted by events closer to home, the [...]
Can we please dispense with all notions that monetary policy works? Specifically balance sheet expansion via any scale asset purchase programs. Nowhere has that been more apparent than Japan. Go back and reread all the promised benefits from BoJ’s Big Bang QQE that were confidently written in 2013. The biggest bazooka ever conceived has fallen short in every conceivable way. [...]
The 3-month Treasury bill’s equivalent yield has plunged, absolutely plunged. It was 1.45% last Thursday. Today? All of 45 bps. A one-hundred bp drop in six trading sessions. One hundred. Six days. Rate cuts, right? Sure, that’s the premise. Like eurodollar futures, the front end of the yield curve is saying that there are more of them coming. The Fed’s [...]
Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events. The short version: monetary authorities as well as the “experts” describe almost perfectly risk averse behavior [...]
Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz ignited and invited controversy today when he signaled that the federal government is looking at a possible suspension to constitutional budget measures. With a nasty political fight certain to follow, even temporarily adjourning the country’s so-called debt brake would not be easy. With Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party already in a precarious position, one might wonder, [...]
When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil. The non-standard [...]
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