The chatter that continues over Japan’s spiral into (further) economic impoverishment is simply astounding since it is taken as “expert” by the media. A credentialed economist will look at some numbers and simply take them as meaningful, especially if they are the “right” sign in the “right” direction. This is either wholly obtuse or intentionally misleading. Stronger exports would support [...]
When QQE was first officially introduced, I produced what I thought would be a “template” for the trajectory of the Japanese economy. On a strictly reasoned basis, without any forward calculations or regressions, the Japanese, and Bank of Japan in particular, were making a choice with what I thought was very little chance of ultimate success. You can understand, somewhat, [...]
Japan is undoubtedly now quite the mess, but that is starting to spill-over into general view in what has to be a most unwelcome and even embarrassing occurrence for its practitioners. The problem, however, is much deeper now than just an economy seemingly forever doomed to the recesses of some kind of economic hell. For a quadrillion yen, the Bank [...]
The good news in Japan for August trade figures is that imports fell 1.5% Y/Y, but that was balanced by an almost identical 1.3% Y/Y decline in exports. Confounding all orthodox expectations, the yen’s radical devaluation did nothing to press divergence between imports and exports as it was “supposed” to. Instead, imports matched exports, at best, and where it counted [...]
With the yen precipitating levels not seen since the very week Lehman collapsed and finally confirmed just how global the crisis was (and would remain), “markets” in Japan and everywhere have begun to “anticipate” (beg?) even more. The yen briefly touched (devalued) 107 to the US$, a remarkable run that threatens to even further upend the now-very weakened state inside [...]
The Bank of Japan has already been pressured by events to reduce its economic expectations for 2014. At the end of 2013 there was enough cautious optimism that Japanese officials went ahead with their dubious proposal to try to appear fiscally responsible. The tax increase was expected to create a mild contraction in GDP before the economy then accelerated mildly [...]
There is a growing bid for safety in almost every corner of the globe at this moment, save for a few outliers. Even the 10-year JGP sits at 50 bps today despite the spike in consumer inflation engineered by the Bank of Japan’s QQE. Of course, with BoJ buying up almost everything in sight, that may not be a relevant [...]
This may be a more globally universal problem than specifically limited to just Japan, but since the Japanese have been encapsulated here by far the longest it has lost almost all meaning. At some point, there has to be a penetrating numbness that becomes downright debilitating which is why a degree of sympathy is called for despite it all. There [...]
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